Table 2.
2004–2013 trends and 2014–2020 forecast of the rate of early-stage lung cancer at diagnosis in Taiwan
| Rate of early-stage cancer at diagnosis (%) | ||||||||
| NSCLC | SCLC | |||||||
| Actual value | Forecast (ARIMA) |
CI | Actual value | Forecast (ARIMA) |
CI | |||
| Low 95% | Up 95% | Low 95% | Up 95% | |||||
| 1994 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 1995 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 1996 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 1997 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 1998 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 1999 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 2000 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 2001 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 2002 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 2003 | NA | NA | NA | NA | ||||
| 2004 | 12.63 | NA | 4.78 | NA | ||||
| 2005 | 14.27 | 13.9 | 5.77 | 4.66 | ||||
| 2006 | 14.37 | 15.43 | 4.09 | 4.92 | ||||
| 2007 | 15.09 | 15.96 | 6.26 | 4.99 | ||||
| 2008 | 15.66 | 16.51 | 3.13 | 4.64 | ||||
| 2009 | 18.46 | 17.12 | 3.06 | 4.98 | ||||
| 2010 | 20.23 | 19.29 | 3.91 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2011 | 20.51 | 21.35 | 3.34 | 3.15 | ||||
| 2012 | 23.16 | 22.05 | 3.87 | 3.51 | ||||
| 2013 | 23.99 | 24.04 | 4.1 | 3.33 | ||||
| 2014 | 25.38 | 23.36 | 27.39 | 3.75 | 1.26 | 6.24 | ||
| 2015 | 26.61 | 24.13 | 29.09 | 3.78 | 1.14 | 6.41 | ||
| 2016 | 27.89 | 24.93 | 30.84 | 3.56 | 0.3 | 6.83 | ||
| 2017 | 29.15 | 25.81 | 32.49 | 3.5 | 0.02 | 6.99 | ||
| 2018 | 30.42 | 26.72 | 34.11 | 3.34 | NA | 7.22 | ||
| 2019 | 31.68 | 27.66 | 35.7 | 3.25 | NA | 7.36 | ||
| 2020 | 32.95 | 28.63 | 37.26 | 3.11 | NA | 7.52 | ||
ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average; CI, confidence interval; NA, not available; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer; SCLC, small cell lung cancer.