Table 3.
Predictive statistics
| Age > 15 years (PTS/EAST) | VTE prediction model: moderate or high risk | VTE prediction model: maximized Sen/Sp | VTE prediction model: maximized PPV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 53.3 (34.3–71.7) | 60.0 (40.6–77.3) | 93.3 (77.9–99.2) | 26.7 (12.3–45.9) |
| Specificity, % (95% CI) | 76.7 (75.8–77.6) | 95.7 (95.2–96.1) | 85.0 (84.2–85.7) | 99.5 (99.3–99.6) |
| Positive predictive value, % (95% CI) | 0.83 (0.6–1.2) | 4.8 (3.6–6.5) | 2.2 (2.0–2.5) | 15.1 (8.4–25.6) |
| Negative predictive value, % (95% CI) | 99.8 (99.7–99.9) | 99.9 (99.8–99.9) | 100.0 (99.9–100.0) | 99.7 (99.7–99.8) |
| Accuracy, % (95% CI) | 76.6 (75.7–77.5) | 95.6 (95.1–96.0) | 85.0 (84.2–85.8) | 99.2 (99.0–99.4) |
| False-positive rate (%) | 23.3 | 4.3 | 15 | 0.5 |
| False-negative rate (%) | 46.7 | 40 | 6.7 | 73.3 |
| Suggested prophylaxis cohort (%) | 23.4 | 4.5 | 15.3 | 0.6 |
Diagnostic statistics and suggested prophylaxis intervention size are reported for thromboprophylaxis regimens based on current society guidelines or moderate- or high-risk classification by the VTE prediction algorithm. Additionally, these statistics are reported for two alternative analyses of the VTE prediction algorithm where either sensitivity/specificity are maximized (VTE risk score: 332) or positive predictive value is maximized (VTE risk score: 687)
PTS/EAST Pediatric Trauma Society/Eastern Association of the Surgery for Trauma management guidelines, VTE venous thromboembolism, Sen/sp sensitivity/specificity, PPV positive predictive value, 95% CI 95% confidence interval