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. 2020 Feb 14;10:2636. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-59128-7

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index in industrial-era HadISST data during 1998–2017 obtained via KAF (red) and LIM (blue). (a,b) RMSE and PC scores, respectively, as a function of lead time, computed for 1998–2007 ( $\circ$ markers), 2008–2017 (* markers), and the full 1998–2017 verification period (solid lines). The 0.6 and 0.5 PC levels are highlighted in (b) for reference. (c–f) Running forecasts for representative lead times in the range 0–9 months. Black lines show the true signal at the corresponding verification times.