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. 2020 May 12;10(5):e032579. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032579

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Cross-validation and calibration exercise: Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP)-generated results and Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)-generated results for current smoking prevalence over time for US people born in 1950. (A) Women. (B) Men. The red-dotted line shows results from the CISNET model. The other three lines show STOP-generated results after each step of our parameterisation and calibration process. The blue line includes parameterisation of smoking initiation and cessation, but not relapse. The pink-dashed line includes smoking relapse as based on published studies. The black line includes calibration of smoking cessation probabilities to reflect quit attempts and relapse before sustained abstinence.