Table 2.
Risk of healthcare use and outcomes among infected.
| Age group | % Infected, Hospitalizeda | % of Hospitalized, Admitted to ICUa | % ICU patients needing ventilationb | Infection fatality ratio (IFR)a | Fatality increase if demand > capacityc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9 | 0.01% | 5.0% | 63.2% | 0.002% | 1.000% |
| 10–19 | 0.04% | 5.0% | 63.2% | 0.006% | 1.000% |
| 20–29 | 1.10% | 5.0% | 63.2% | 0.030% | 1.000% |
| 30–39 | 3.40% | 5.0% | 63.2% | 0.080% | 1.000% |
| 40–49 | 4.30% | 6.3% | 63.2% | 0.150% | 1.000% |
| 50–59 | 8.20% | 12.2% | 63.2% | 0.600% | 1.000% |
| 60–69 | 11.80% | 27.4% | 63.2% | 2.200% | 1.000% |
| 70–79 | 16.60% | 43.2% | 63.2% | 5.100% | 1.000% |
| 80+ | 18.40% | 70.9% | 63.2% | 9.300% | 1.000% |
b
Based on ICNARC (2020). Alternative estimates include 60% (Meltzer et al., 2015) and 71.1% (Yang et al., 2020).
c
Percentage points increase in fatalities when hospitals are overwhelmed. We assumed a 1% increase in the IFR to approximately double the population-weighted age-based IFR in Chile, based on data from COVID19 in China (Zhang et al., 2020).