Table 3.
Model inputs by region for all illustrative scenarios.
| Region |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitana | Araucanía | Ñuble | Source | |
| Populationa | 7,112,808 | 957,224 | 480,609 | Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (2017) |
| COVID-19 reported casesb | ||||
| Cumulative | 20,590 | 1,907 | 1,107 | Ministry of Health (2020a) |
| 2 weeks through 05/04/20 | 12,487 | 364 | 133 | Ministry of Health (2020a) |
| R0 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0–2.8 | Riou et al. (2020); Li et al. (2020) |
| Intervention strategy | ||||
| School closures, telework | 4/1–12/1/20 | 4/1–12/1/20 | 4/1–12/1/20 | Assumed |
| Case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing>70, telework | 4/1–12/1/20 | 4/1–12/1/20 | 4/1–12/1/20 | Assumed |
| Lockdown | 4/1–6/1/20 | 4/1–6/1/20 | 4/1–6/1/20 | Assumed |
| Disease severity | ||||
| Infected who are hospitalizedc (%) | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | Verity et al. (2020) |
| Hospitalized, admitted to ICUc (%) | 11.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | Verity et al. (2020) |
| Infection Fatality ratec (%) | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Verity et al. (2020) |
| ICU patients needing ventilator (%) | 63.2% | 63.2% | 63.2% | ICNARC (2020) |
| Healthcare resourcesd | ||||
| Hospital (non-ICU) beds | 18,522 | 2,671 | 1,010 | Latorre and Sandoval (2020) |
| In-use by Non-COVID Patients (%) | 71% | 71% | 71% | OECD et al. (2019) |
| In-use by COVID Patients (%)e | 3% | 3% | 3% | Ministry of Health (2020a) |
| Critical Care Beds | 2,326 | 215 | 60 | Latorre and Sandoval (2020) |
| In-use by Non-COVID Patients (%) | 71% | 71% | 71% | OECD et al. (2019) |
| In-use by COVID Patients (%)e | 14% | 14% | 14% | Ministry of Health (2020a) |
| Ventilators | 867 | 80 | 22 | Latorre and Sandoval (2020) |
| In-use by Non-COVID Patients (%)f | 40% | 40% | 40% | Wunsch et al. (2013) |
| In-use by COVID Patients (%)g | 19% | 19% | 19% | Assumed |
Population distributed by age groups are shown in the Supplementary Material S2, based on INE’s Housing and Population Census 2017 Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (2017).
Scaled counts to account for assumed 40% under-reporting in reported cases (based on 60% reported by Pan et al., 2020 minus 20% to account for improvements in case-detection in Chile since the outbreak’s start).
Estimates differ by region due to age structure of the populations (Supplementary Material S2).
All beds available in the healthcare system, from public and private hospitals, are now part of the “Sistema Integrado COVID-19" under the centralized administration of the Ministry of Health. An intensive care bed (ICU) consists of a cot with a monitor, healthcare professionals, and medication to treat patients. Some have a mechanical ventilator. There are an estimated 1,847 mechanical ventilators; 850 currently available and 997 were acquired in January 2020. Latorre and Sandoval (2020) We assumed the distribution of mechanical ventilators was proportional to the number of critical beds in each region: Metropolitana, 47.0%; Araucanía, 4.3%; Ñuble, 1.2%. (Supplementary Material S2)
Based on the reported number hospitalized in "basic beds" (1,216) and in "critical care beds" (699) in all of Chile by the Ministry of Health as of May 4, 2020, out of the total existing beds nationally in March 2020 plus anticipated beds being added to expand pandemic treatment capacity: 41,706 and 4,954, respectively. Latorre and Sandoval (2020).
Availability of mechanical ventilators was based on a three-year study of 97 ICUs in the US. (Wunsch et al., 2013).
Calculated by applying the % ICU patients needing ventilation (Table 2) to the number of COVID patients in critical care beds (see note e) and dividing the result by the total ventilators in Chile (see note f).