Table 2.

Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) from logistic regression models predicting type 2 diabetes (T2D) incidence.

	Men			Women
Characteristic	Model 1	Model 2: Baseline BMI	Model 3: Baseline Waist Circumference	Model 1	Model 2: Baseline BMI	Model 3: Baseline Waist Circumference
Age	1.03	1.03	1.03	1.04	1.04	1.04
	(1.02, 1.04)	(1.02, 1.04)	(1.02, 1.03)	(1.03, 1.05)	(1.03, 1.05)	(1.03, 1.05)
Educational Level (Low)
Medium	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.89	0.98	0.99
	(0.80, 1.15)	(0.80, 1.15)	(0.80, 1.15)	(0.71, 1.10)	(0.80, 1.22)	(0.80, 1.23)
High	0.76	0.92	0.87	0.81	1.02	0.98
	(0.63, 0.92)	(0.76, 1.12)	(0.72, 1.05)	(0.64, 1.01)	(0.82, 1.27)	(0.79, 1.22)
Calendar Year	1.11	1.12	1.11	1.10	1.11	1.09
	(1.08, 1.13)	(1.09, 1.14)	(1.09, 1.14)	(1.07, 1.13)	(1.08, 1.14)	(1.07, 1.12)
Baseline BMI (kg/m2)		1.44			1.36
		(1.37, 1.51)			(1.29, 1.42)
Baseline BMI-squared		0.989			0.991
		(0.986, 0.992)			(0.988, 0.994)
Baseline Waist Circumference (cm)			1.15			1.13
			(1.13, 1.17)			(1.10, 1.15)
Baseline Waist Circumference-squared			0.998			0.999
			(0.998, 0.999)			(0.998, 0.999)
Smoking Status (Never) Current		1.24	1.12		1.92	1.77
		(1.00, 1.53)	(0.91, 1.39)		(1.52, 2.43)	(1.40, 2.24)
Former		1.11	1.06		1.21	1.12
		(0.92, 1.33)	(0.88, 1.28)		(0.96, 1.52)	(0.89, 1.41)

Note: Ages 40–74 years at time of the survey. Educational attainment based on birth cohort specific tertiles. Omitted categories shown in parentheses. Model 1 excludes any measure of weight status. Model 2 includes baseline BMI and Model 3 includes baseline waist circumference. Models stratified by sex. Data are from FINRISK 1997, 2002, 2007 with follow-up through 2011. Three decimal places shown for BMI-squared and waist circumference-squared to highlight the direction of the effect size (odds ratios < 1.00).