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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Feb 1.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Epidemiol. 2020 Jan 9;42:12–18. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2019.12.008

Table 3.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) incidence (95% confidence intervals) by sex under counterfactual scenarios eliminating excess baseline BMI and current and former cigarette smoking

Scenarios T2D Incidence (per 1,000 person years) Amount Explained (per 1,000 person years) Percentage Explained
Men
Observed 10.24 - -
(9.48, 11.00)
Eliminating Excess Baseline BMI 3.20 7.04 68.72
(2.66, 3.75) (6.33, 7.75) (63.98, 73.46)
Eliminating Smoking 9.28 0.97 9.45
(7.95, 10.61) (−0.17, 2.11) (−1.67, 20.56)
Eliminating Excess Baseline BMI and Smoking 2.90 7.35 71.71
(2.30, 3.49) (6.57, 8.12) (66.30, 77.12)
Women
Observed 7.04 - -
(6.42, 7.65)
Eliminating Excess Baseline BMI 2.58 4.46 63.34
(2.12, 3.04) (3.90, 5.01) (57.63, 69.04)
Eliminating Smoking 6.05 0.98 13.97
(5.34, 6.76) (0.50, 1.46) (7.24, 20.70)
Eliminating excess Baseline BMI and Smoking 2.18 4.86 69.03
(1.74, 2.61) (4.28, 5.43) (63.50, 74.57)

Note: Counterfactuals calculated from logistic regression models shown in Table 2. Ages 40–74 years at time of survey. Excess BMI is a BMI BMI≥25.0. Smoking status ascertained at baseline. Data are from FINRISK 1997, 2002, 2007 with follow-up through 2011.