Table 2.

Included studies

Publication	Year	Country	Study design	Conclusion
Moodie, Hastings, Joossens. Young adult smokers’ perceptions of illicit tobacco and the possible impact of plain packaging on purchase behaviour. European Journal of Public Health30	2011	Scotland, UK	Qualitative, 8 focus groups, 54 young adult smokers aged 18-35. Purposive sampling. Semi-structured approach	Packaging (branded or standardized) had no impact on the decision to consume counterfeit tobacco. Counterfeit was immediately recognisable not least by poor quality of packaging
Freeman. Tobacco plain packaging legislation: a content analysis of commentary posted on Australian online news33	2011	Australia	Content analysis of public commentary on online news items about standardized packaging restricted to Australian websites between 28th April and 8th May 2010	Standardized packaging can be exceptionally newsworthy and arouse strong public opinion. The comments unsupportive of standardized packaging were more than 2.5 times more common than those supportive of the policy
Moodie, Purves, McKell, de Andrade. Young women smokers’ perceptions and use of counterfeit cigarettes: Would plain packaging make a difference? Addiction Research & Theory32	2013	Scotland, UK	Qualitative, 8 focus groups, 49 young women smokers aged 16-24. Purposive sampling. Semi-structured approach	Standardized packaging had no bearing on perceived appeal of counterfeit cigarettes
Rowell, Evans-Reeves, Gilmore. Tobacco industry manipulation of data on and press coverage of the illicit tobacco trade in the UK. Tobacco Control34	2014	UK	Content analysis of UK press articles citing industry data on illicit tobacco from March 2008 to March 2013	TTCs were exaggerating the threat of illicit tobacco by commissioning surveys whose methodology and validity remain uncertain, planting misleading stories and misquoting government data. Industry data should be treated with caution
Scollo, Zacher, Durkin, Wakefield. Early evidence about the predicted unintended consequences of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: a cross-sectional study of the place of purchase, regular brands and use of illicit tobacco. BMJ Open36	2014	Australia	Cross-sectional population telephone surveys in Nov 2011 (a year prior to implemenation), 2012 (during roll out) and 2013 (a year after implementation) of smokers aged 18+	One year after implementation there was no evidence of the major unintended consequences concerning loss of smoker patrons from small retail oulets, flooding of the market by cheap Asian brands and use of illicit tobacco
Scollo, Bayley, Wakefield. Availability of illicit tobacco in small retail outlets before and after the implementation of Australian plain packaging legislation. Tobacco Control38	2015	Australia	Before and after study. Fieldworkers requested cheapest branded and unbranded cigarettes in small retail outlets before and after introduction of standardized packaging	No change in availability of illicit tobacco was observed following implementation of standardized packaging
Evans-Reeves, Hatchard, Gilmore. “It will harm business and increase illicit trade”: an evaluation of the relevance, quality and transparency of evidence submitted by trasnational tobacco companies to the UK consultation on standardised packaging 2012. Tobacco Control35	2015	UK	Content analysis of the four TTCs’ submission to the UK consultation on standardized packaging	In the absence of peer-reviewed research to support their arguments, TTCs relied on evidence they commissioned and the opinions of TTC-connected third parties. Such connections were not disclosed by TTCs
Scollo, Zacher, Coomber, Wakefield. Use of illicit tobacco following introduction of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: results from a national cross-sectional survey. Tobacco Control37	2015	Australia	National cross-sectional telephone surveys conducted continuously from April 2012 (6 months before implementation of standardized packaging) to March 2014 (15 months after) of adult smokers	No evidence in Australia of increased use of two categories of manufactured cigarettes likely to be contraband, no increase in purchase from informal sellers and no increased use of unbranded illicit tobacco
Peters, Saffron. Patterns of non-compliant tobacco use in Sydney estimated using an empty pack survey. Respirology21	2015	Australia	Before and after empty-pack survey	Illicit trade in unbranded cigarettes was minimal
Guthrie, Hoek, Darroch, Wood. A qualitative analysis of New Zealand retialers’ responses to standardised packaging legislation and tobacco industry opposition39	2015	New Zealand	Qualitative, 23 in-depth interviews with retailers. Purposive sampling stratified by store type. Semi-structured approach	Few retailers thought standardized packaging would foster illicit trade or spawn further regulation. Most retailers placed public health goals ahead of tobacco companies “rights” and many supported government intervention to protect population health