Table 4.

Model-averaged estimates of fixed effects from the LMMs of calving date of a reindeer population in relation to plant phenology in Kaamanen, northern Finland.

Variable	Estimate	Unconditional SE	Nbr models	95% CI
1970–2015
zDENSt−1	0.23	0.03	2	0.17, 0.29
zPMt−1	−0.09	0.02	2	−0.14, −0.04
dBCIWintert	−0.20	0.03	2	−0.25, −0.14
dThermalStartt−1	0.10	0.02	2	0.05, 0.15
zThermalEndt−1	0.12	0.02	2	0.07, 0.16
dBCIWintert × zThermalEndt−1	0.06	0.02	2	0.02, 0.10
dBCIWintert × dThermalStartt−1	−0.01	0.02	1	−0.06, 0.03
1997–2015
dDENSt−1	−0.08	0.07	2	−0.21, 0.06
zPMt−1	−0.06	0.04	2	−0.14, 0.03
dBCISpringt	−0.33	0.06	2	−0.45, −0.22
zVegOnsett−1	0.10	0.05	2	0.0006, 0.20
zVegEndt−1	0.47	0.04	2	0.38, 0.55
dBCISpringt × zVegOnsett−1	−0.18	0.06	2	−0.31, −0.06
dBCISpringt × zVegEndt−1	−0.05	0.04	1	−0.13, 0.04

The estimates in bold type were deemed important (whose 95% CI excluded 0) in explaining calving date. “Nbr models” is the number of models (out of the 2 best models in Table 3) including that variable. The analyses were repeated over the 2 study periods: the whole study period (1970–2015) and the last part of the study period (1997–2015). All models included the female identity as a random factor on the intercept. A lowercase “d” in front of the variable indicated that the variable was used “detrended,” whereas a lowercase “z” indicated that the variable was used standardized. The predictor variables were the following: DENS, PM, start and end of the thermal growing season (ThermalStart and ThermalEnd, respectively), onset and end of the vegetative growing season (VegOnset and VegEnd, respectively), BCI of females averaged over the winter (from December to March, BCIWinter) and BCI of females, averaged in spring (April–May, BCISpring). A cross “×” indicated an interaction term between the 2 variables. DENS, population density; PM, proportion of males in the herd; SE, standard error.