Table 5.
Fitness consequences of the lagged effects of plant phenology on the birth weight (BirthWeightt) and first-summer survival (Survt) of calves of the Kutuharju reindeer herd in northern Finland.
| BirthWeightt |
Survt |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| b | 95% CI | b | 95% CI | ||
| 1970–2015 | 1970–2015 | ||||
| dThermalStartt−1 | −0.07 | −0.11, −0.03 | dThermalStartt | −0.20 | −0.32, −0.07 |
| zTLThermalStart | 0.09 | 0.04, 0.13 | zThermalEndt−1 | −0.13 | −0.25, −0.01 |
| dLTGSt−1 | −0.04 | −0.08, −0.002 | dLTGSt−1 | −0.39 | −0.52, −0.26 |
| 1997–2015 | 1997–2015 | ||||
| zVegOnsett−1 | −0.09 | −0.15, −0.02 | zVegOnsett | −0.40 | −0.71, −0.11 |
| zThermalEndt−1 | −0.18 | −0.25, −0.12 | |||
| zLTGSt−1 | −0.17 | −0.23, −0.10 | zTLThermalStart | 0.34 | 0.08, 0.60 |
| zTLThermalEnd | 0.20 | 0.14, 0.27 | zTLThermalEnd | −0.31 | −0.60, −0.02 |
The analyses were repeated over the 2 study periods: the whole study period (1970–2015) and the last part of the study period (1997–2015). All models included the female identity as a random factor on the intercept. A lowercase “d” in front of the variable indicated that the variable was used “detrended,” whereas a lowercase “z” indicated that the variable was used standardized. The predictor variables were the following: start and end of the thermal growing season (ThermalStart and ThermalEnd, respectively), onset of the vegetative growing season (VegOnset), LTGS, time lag between calving date and ThermalStart (TLThermalStart) and time lag between calving date and ThermalEnd the previous calendar year (TLThermalEnd).