Table 1.

Summary of sources for parameter estimates for the cancer surgical model (see supplementary Table S1, available at Annals of Oncology online, for full description)

Component of model	Elements	Data source	Comment	Reference/specific values
Life-years lost due to delay in surgery	Proportion of patients surviving after surgery	5-year survival rates for cancer surgery in England	Age, site and stage-specific 5-year cancer survival in individuals in whom major resection was performed	PHE National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service4
	Decrease in survival due to delay in treatment	Observational studies of increased death rate due to delay in treatment	Hazard ratio for increase in death rate for each day delay in treatment based on estimates from literature applied to standard survival rates; applied to tumours depending on tumour aggressiveness	Cancer progressiveness based on 5-y survival: Low: >90% Moderate: 50%–90% High: <50% Per-day hazard ratio for fatality10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20: Low: 0.0030 Moderate: 0.0056 High: 0.0056
	COVID-related postsurgical mortality. SACT-related mortality	Nosocomial infection rate	Based on literature, estimate from clinical site data	5% per day29
		Mortality from COVID infection	Age-specific data from international series	0–39 y: 0.2% 30–39 y: 0.2% 40–49 y: 0.4% 50–59 y: 1.3% 60–69 y: 3.6% 70–79 y: 8.0% ≥80 y: 14.8%
		Survival benefit from SACT	Expert clinical interpretation of literature	Stage 1: 5% Stage 2: 7.5% Stage 3: 10%30
		Increase in COVID-related mortality due to SACT	Based on UK and international literature	Two-fold7,8
	Life expectancy after survival	General population mean life expectancies per 10-year age band	Expected remaining life-years in the treated group based on proportion who survive after treatment (with and without delay)	ONS Life Tables31
Health care resourcing	Duration of operation, ICU and inpatient ward stay	Data from UK surgical oncology centres	Calculated as health care resource units (HCRUs) of direct clinical care. 1 HCRU = one 12-h medical/nursing shift
	Staffing ratios in theatre, wards, ICU

COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; ICU, intensive care unit; PHE, Public Health England; SACT, systemic anticancer therapy.