Table 3.

The estimated impacts of various interventions on COVID-19 outcomes in 16 countries

Countries and income categories	Uncontrolled, no intervention scenario			Intermittent cycles of mitigation and relaxation (Effective R = 0.8)			Intermittent cycles of suppression and relaxation (Effective R = 0.5)
	New infections/day during the peak	ICU bed needs/day during the peak	No. of total deaths over 18 months	New infections/day during the peak	ICU bed needs/day during the peak	No. of total deaths over 18 months	New infections/day during the peak	ICU bed needs/day during the peak	No. of total deaths over 18 months
High-income
Australia	1,434,638	59,803	197,746	418,643	14,798	89,091	54,748	1734	19,996
Belgium	657,883	33,213	109,785	253,150	10,674	51,151	63,135	2404	15,846
Chile	1,078,061	34,818	115,060	357,316	9716	53,210	18,351	450	7505
The Netherlands	973,779	48,724	161,147	354,373	14,831	73,383	63,412	2395	19,819
Upper-middle income
Colombia	2,862,000	69,878	230,682	988,841	20,225	104,040	30,730	570	9239
Mexico	7,253,642	154,507	509,794	2,082,308	37,598	228,879	53,308	863	12,047
South Africa	3,329,773	52,421	172,416	1,189,739	15,674	79,091	44,377	531	9094
Sri Lanka	1,212,623	34,335	113,469	282,813	6876	51,489	7875	170	2039
Lower-middle income
Bangladesh	9,270,170	150,503	495,420	2,427,104	33,631	226,700	36,597	452	4908
India	77,698,771	1,414,384	4,660,013	26,185,375	399,982	2,093,893	87,558	1211	15,379
Nigeria	11,426,973	97,411	319,598	2,944,575	21,424	144,049	7894	51	659
Pakistan	12,316,925	159,636	525,189	3,653,682	40,072	235,520	86,084	848	11,264
Low-income
Afghanistan	2,163,088	17,640	57,851	550,669	3839	26,401	6989	43	614
Burkina Faso	1,155,479	8918	29,228	388,909	2519	13,154	11,838	69	1080
Tanzania	3,297,673	27,308	89,543	809,325	5740	40,755	16,653	105	905
Uganda	2,516,788	16,350	53,503	804,079	4397	23,987	20,095	99	1249