Table 3.

Scenario analyses: total costs ($ millions)

Scenario	With PCV IIP	Without PCV IIP	Incremental
Base case	15,072	16,832	− 1760
Average IPD incidence from 2001 to 2004 used as baseline	15,072	16,668	− 1596
2001 IPD incidence used as baseline	15,072	16,771	− 1700
2004 IPD incidence used as baseline	15,072	16,583	− 1511
Including AOM for 5–9 year olds	16,572	19,182	− 2610
No incremental AOM incidence reduction after 2008	15,072	15,643	− 571
Only 25% of pneumonia and 50% of AOM decline attributed to PCV IIP	10,686	12,055	− 1370
Vaccination rate set to 90% for all years	15,176	16,832	− 1656
IPD incidence based on weighted average of Quebec and Ontario data	15,316	17,125	− 1809
Exclusion of indirect costs	11,001	11,771	− 770

Costs presented in 2018 Canadian dollars. Base case assumed the following: maximum historical IPD incidence (per 100,000) from 2001 to 2004 for the setting without PCV IIP (35.97 for < 5 years; 3.22 for 5–17 years; 4.29 for 18–49 years; 13.12 for 50–64 years; 33.72 for 65+ years); 80% vaccination rate for all years; IPD incidence from TIBDN only; incremental reduction in AOM incidence throughout the PCV era; 50% of pneumonia decline change and 100% of AOM decline due to PCV IIP introduction; indirect costs considered

For the scenario in which we assume the 2001 incidence for IPD, the incidence rates per age group were: 31.46 for < 5 years; 3.09 for 5–17 years; 4.00 for 18–49 years; 13.12 for 50–64 years; 30.70 for 65+ years

For the scenario in which we assume 2004 incidence for IPD, the incidence rates per age group were: 25.9 for < 5 years; 1.52 for 5–17 years; 3.48 for 18–49 years; 11.53 for 50–64 years; 26.72 for 65 + years

For the scenario in which we assume the average IPD incidence (per 100,000) from 2001 to 2004, the incidence rates were: 31.46 for < 5 years; 2.33 for 5–17 years; 3.78 for 18–49 years; 10.95 for 50–64 years; 30.33 for 65+ years

AOM acute otitis media, IIP infant immunization program, IPD invasive pneumococcal disease, PCV pneumococcal conjugate vaccine