Table 1.
Disease parameters
| Parameter | Serial interval scenario 1 | Serial interval scenario 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | Mean [95% CI] | Source | Median | Mean [95% CI] | Source | |
| Basic Reproductive Number (R0) | 2.20 | 2.2 [1.46, 3.31] | Riou 2020 Eurosurveillance15; Li 2020 NEJM14 | Same as scenario 1 | --- | --- |
| Serial Interval (Days) (TLAT) | 4.6 | 4.8 [1.02, 9.81] | Nishiura 202013 | 6.99 | 7.5 [2.39, 15.48] | Li 2020 NEJM14 |
| Incubation Period (Days) (TINC) | 4.14 | 5.2 [1.11, 15.53] | Li 2020 NEJM14 | Same as scenario 1 | --- | --- |
| Dispersion (k) | --- | 0.54 | Riou 2020 Eurosurveillance15 | Same as scenario 1 | --- | --- |
| Latent period offset** (Days between latent and incubation period) (TLAT - TINC) | −0.71 | −0.77 [−1.98, 0.29] | Model Fit* | 0.59 | 0.51 [−0.77, 1.50] | Model Fit* |
| Duration of infectiousness (Days) (dINF) | 1.8 | 2.4 [1, 6.74] | Model Fit* | 4.4 | 4.8 [1.12, 10.5] | Model Fit* |
| Relative time of peak infectiousness*** (range = 0–1) (βτ) | 0.38 | 0.43 [0, 0.97] | Model Fit* | 0.37 | 0.38 [0, 0.97] | Model Fit* |
Abbreviations: 95% CI = 95% Confidence Interval
*
Parameters fit via sequential Monte Carlo method
**
Positive values indicate symptoms before infectiousness; negative values indicate infectiousness before symptoms.
***
Value of 0 indicates linearly decreasing infectiousness; value of 0.5 indicates peak infectiousness at midpoint of duration of infectiousness; value of 1 indicates linearly increasing infectiousness.