Table 1.

Overview of parameter assumptions for the model

Parameter	Value	Source
R 0, basic reproduction number	Central 95% range is 1.4–3.9 Gamma distributed,	Li et al.10
λ 0, rate of arrival of infected travellers (individuals per week) at time when interventions are introduced	0.1, 1, or 10 or 100	Assumption
θ, probability that infected traveller is not detected by screening	Exit screening only: 46% (95% CI: 37%, 57%) Entry and exit screening: 42% (95% CI: 33%, 53%) No screening: 100% (100%, 100%)	Quilty et al.6
ρ, effectiveness of traveller sensitisation	0%, 25%, Sensitivity analyses: 50%	Gostic et al., Hellewell et al.5,8
, epidemic growth rate (per day)	Central 95% range is 0.05–0.16 Gamma distributed,	Li et al.10
, probability of outbreak caused by a single infected traveller (without and with intervention, respectively)	Solution to Equation 1 with for and for	Hartfield and Alizon16
, number of infected arrivals required to trigger an outbreak in absence of interventions	quantile of a geometric distribution with probability	Derived
, number of infected arrivals required to trigger an outbreak in presence of interventions	quantile (matched to above) of a geometric distribution with probability	Derived
, arrival time for the infected traveller who triggers an outbreak, without and with interventions	Poisson process with intensity	Derived
k, dispersion parameter for number of secondary infections	0.54 Sensitivity analyses: 0.1 and 2.00 (influenza-like)	Riou and Althaus, Lloyd-Smith et al., Endo et al.20,22,23