Table.
COVID-19 disease parameters
|
Serial interval scenario 1 |
Serial interval scenario 2 |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | Mean (95% CI) | Source | Median | Mean (95% CI) | Source | |
| Basic reproductive number (R0) | 2·20 | 2·2 (1·46 to 3·31) | Riou and Althaus;13 Li and colleagues12 | 2·20 | 2·2 (1·46 to 3·31) | Riou and Althaus;13 Li and colleagues12 |
| Serial interval (TLAT), days | 4·6 | 4·8 (1·02 to 9·81) | Nishiura and colleagues11 | 6·99 | 7·50 (2·39 to 15·48) | Li and colleagues12 |
| Incubation period (TINC), days | 4·14 | 5·2 (1·11 to 15·53) | Li and colleagues12 | 4·14 | 5·2 (1·11 to 15·53) | Li and colleagues12 |
| Dispersion (k) | .. | 0·54 | Riou and Althaus13 | .. | 0·54 | Riou and Althaus13 |
| Latent period offset (TLAT–TINC), days* | −0·71 | −0·77 (−1·98 to 0·29) | Model fitting by sequential Monte Carlo method | 0·59 | 0·51 (−0·77 to 1·50) | Model fitting by sequential Monte Carlo method |
| Duration of infectiousness (dINF), days | 1·8 | 2·4 (1·0 to 6·7) | Model fitting by sequential Monte Carlo method | 4·4 | 4·8 (1·1 to 10·5) | Model fitting by sequential Monte Carlo method |
| Relative time of peak infectiousness (βτ)† | 0·38 | 0·43 (0 to 0·97) | Model fitting by sequential Monte Carlo method | 0·37 | 0·38 (0 to 0·97) | Model fitting by sequential Monte Carlo method |
Due to uncertainty in the serial interval, results are presented for two scenarios: scenario 1 assuming a shorter serial interval with mean 4·8 days,11 and scenario 2 assuming a longer serial interval with mean 7·5 days.12 COVID-19=coronavirus disease 2019.
*
Positive values indicate symptoms before infectiousness; negative values indicate infectiousness before symptoms.
†
Range 0–1, with 0 indicating linearly decreasing infectiousness, 0·5 indicating peak infectiousness at midpoint of duration of infectiousness, and 1 indicating linearly increasing infectiousness.