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. 2020 May 20;10:8386. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-65017-w

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Annual apparent survival estimates for first year birds in relation to summer temperature. Circles are medians of posterior distributions obtained by model 2b, vertical bars connect the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of the posterior distributions (95% compatibility intervals). The regression line is based on model 3b. Grey shaded area is the 95% compatibility interval of the regression line. For juveniles, we cannot distinguish between first year after first capture and later years, because later they are adults. Horizontal dotted line is the mean of the prior distribution.