Table 2.

Predicted effects between variable pairs in the BNM across lakes.

BNM variable pair		Number of lakes
Predictor	Response	Positive effects	Negative effcts	Mixed effects
Air temperature	Water temperature	31	0	0
	Water level	6	17	8
Precipitation	Water level	29	0	2
	Chlorophyll a	9	7	15
Agricultural land use	Water level	8	12	11
	Chlorophyll a	16	8	7
Water temperature	Chlorophyll a	6	15	10
	Fish catch	10	10	11
Water level	Chlorophyll a	13	8	10
	Fish catch	9	5	17
Chlorophyll a	Fish catch	12	11	8
Fish stocking	Fish catch	4	1	3
Fishing effort	Fish catch	30	0	1

Effects between a variable pair were positive, negative, and mixed based on one-tailed 75% credible intervals of BNM coefficients, for which complete summary statistics are given in Supplementary Data 4. Effects of stocking on fish catch were only included in eight lakes where stocked species contributed >20% of fish catches in >10 years in the study period 1970–2014.

BNM Bayesian networks model.