Table 1. Summarized results of multi-model inference over two periods: 1975–2015 and 1991–2015.
| Period | Long period analysis | Short period analysis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | 1975> | 1975> | 1975> | 1983> | 1991> | 1986> | 1991> | 1991> | 1991> | 1991> | 1991> | 1991> |
| Strata | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 |
| Intercept | 95*** | 83.6*** | 71.8* | 106.7*** | 63.9*** | 100.9*** | 129.2*** | 97.9*** | 108*** | 127.3*** | 63.9*** | 95.8*** |
| Moth outbreaks | -21.7* | -18.7* | -21.7*** | -51.7* | -28.8* | -29.4* | -33.9 | -30.5*** | -68.8** | -28.8** | -26.9 | |
| Temperature (GS) | 32.2** | 30.7*** | 13.8 | 23.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 21.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | |||
| Temperature (W) | -19.2* | 1.1 | -9.2 | 2.1 | 4.94 | -7.5 | 2.5 | -9.2 | ||||
| Net precipitation (GS) | 5.9 | 6.5 | -0.9 | -2.4 | 10.2 | |||||||
| Net precipitation (W) | 2.8 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -6.4 | ||||||||
| Groundwater (GS) | -7.5 | -32.6* | -44.5** | -2.7 | -5.7 | -16.6 | -32.6* | -57.3* | ||||
| Groundwater (GS)2 | -12.8 | -17.2** | 0.8 | -17.5 | -39.4 | -55.4** | -39.6 | |||||
| Sea water floods | -4.6 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -21.3 | -2.4 | -27.5 | -2.6 | |||||
| Moth x Groundwater2 | 60.9 | 9.9 | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Moth x Groundwater | -7.7 | -6 | ||||||||||
| Moth x Net precipitation (GS) | 19.5 | |||||||||||
| Moth x Temperature (GS) | -9.9 | -13.2 | ||||||||||
| Moth x Sea water floods | -4.8 | |||||||||||
| Net precipitation x Temperature (GS) | -5.7 | -20.6 | 10 | -3.8 | ||||||||
| R2 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 0.6 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.68 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Aw | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.3 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.35 |
Significance levels are indicated with an asterisk (p < 0.05*; p < 0.01**; p < 0.001***). The model fit is shown at the bottom with the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Akaike weight (Aw). Sixteen variables were used in the analysis, with distinctions between growing season (GS) and winter (W). Several interactions (x) were also tested, but not all were included as they had no significant influence. Note that in the high elevation strata (S3 and S6) the seawater related variables were not included.