The TM-GLM captures stimulus-dependent changes in spike transmission probability at the ANF-SBC synapse. A, The TM-GLM captures stimulus-dependent spike transmission probability patterns better than a static model without STP. Dots show spike transmission probability for (log-spaced) presynaptic ISIs during two types of auditory stimuli and during spontaneous activity: natural sounds (yellow), spontaneous activity (red), and tuning stimuli (blue). Solid lines and 95% confidence bands show model predictions for each stimulus type. Corresponding ISI distributions are shown on the right. B, The TM-GLM captures changes in extracellularly recorded PSPs. Here, the observed PSP slope (dots) approximately matches the coupling term in the TM-GLM (solid lines) for each three stimuli. Although the spike transmission probability of the static GLM can vary as a function of presynaptic ISI due to nonsynaptic factors, the coupling term is fixed. C, Estimates of individual PSP amplitudes predicted by the model and their PSP slopes in the juxtacellular recording. Black lines denote linear fits and the bar plot shows the corresponding Spearman correlations. D, After fitting each stimuli condition separately, in each column we plotted the estimated spike transmission probability of each type using the estimated STP parameters of others. E, Distribution of parameters from bootstrap samples with the TM-GLM fit for individual stimuli and all stimuli combined.