Fig. 4.

(Color online) Left panel: Time evolution of the number of Infected (I), Quarantined (Q) and total confirmed cases (Q + R) considering isolation policies, obtained by the numerical integration of Eqs. (1)–(4). Data of confirmed cases are exhibited as well (squares). In the inset we show a zoom in the region of the current data (from March 5, 2020 through April 26, 2020), to highlight the agreement of the model with the data. Right panel: Flattening the curve: comparison between the predicted number of Quarantined individuals for the model with (full line) and without (dashed line) the implementation of isolation policies. The peak of the curve is considerably reduced. In both figures the parameters are $I_0=24,$$\beta =0.32,$$\eta =\alpha =0.018,$$k_0=0.033$ and $\gamma =0.02$.