Table 3.
Top five climate (1964–2011), environmental (1982–2011 except 1986 due to missing data), biological (1992–2006), and geographic location models based on AICc scores for δ13C and δ15N of ringed seal claw annuli
| Model | Response | Rank | Model | AICc | ΔAICc | AICc Wt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climate | δ13C | 1 | AOO | 751.5 | 0.0 | 0.60 |
| 2 | LAGGED AOO | 753.7 | 2.3 | 0.10 | ||
| 3 | AUTUMN PDO + AOO | 754.8 | 3.3 | 0.11 | ||
| 4 | AUTUMN PDO + LAGGED AO + AOO | 757.0 | 5.6 | 0.037 | ||
| 5 | AUTUMN PDO + LAGGED AOO | 757.4 | 6.0 | 0.030 | ||
| δ15N | 1 | NULL | 1,081.3 | 0.0 | 0.50 | |
| 2 | SUMMER AO | 1,083.5 | 2.2 | 0.17 | ||
| 3 | AUTUMN PDO | 1,083.9 | 2.7 | 0.13 | ||
| 4 | LAGGED AO | 1,084.7 | 3.4 | 0.089 | ||
| 5 | AUTUMN PDO + SUMMER AO | 1,085.4 | 4.1 | 0.063 | ||
| Environmental | δ13C | 1 | AOO | 483.25 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| 2 | NULL | 485.43 | 2.18 | 0.26 | ||
| 3 | SUMMER SST + AOO | 486.81 | 3.56 | 0.081 | ||
| 4 | SPRING AT + AOO | 487.81 | 4.56 | 0.049 | ||
| 5 | SUMMER SST | 488.08 | 4.83 | 0.043 | ||
| δ15N | 1 | SUMMER SST | 595.25 | 0.00 | 0.81 | |
| 2 | SUMMER AT | 600.08 | 4.83 | 0.073 | ||
| 3 | NULL | 600.73 | 5.48 | 0.053 | ||
| 4 | SUMMER SST:SUMMER AT | 601.27 | 6.02 | 0.040 | ||
| 5 | SUMMER SST + SUMMER AT | 602.62 | 7.37 | 0.020 | ||
| Biological | δ13C | 1 | LAGGED PWI + AOO | 334.1 | 0.0 | 0.65 |
| 2 | LAGGED PWI + OVULATION +AOO | 336.5 | 2.4 | 0.20 | ||
| 3 | LAGGED PWI + CONDITION +AOO | 338.8 | 4.7 | 0.063 | ||
| 4 | LAGGED PWI + %PUPS + CONDITION +AOO | 340.5 | 6.4 | 0.027 | ||
| 5 | LAGGED PWI + %PUPS + CONDITION + %PUPS:CONDITION + AOO | 341.0 | 6.8 | 0.021 | ||
| δ15N | 1 | % PUPS + SUMMER SST | 402.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 | |
| 2 | SUMMER SST | 405.50 | 2.92 | 0.14 | ||
| 3 | % PUPS + OVULATION +SUMMER SST | 406.27 | 3.70 | 0.092 | ||
| 4 | % PUPS + PWI +CONDITION + SUMMER SST | 406.35 | 3.78 | 0.088 | ||
| 5 | OVULATION + SUMMER SST | 408.05 | 5.48 | 0.038 | ||
| Location | δ13C | 1 | LONGITUDE | 141.57 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| 2 | LATITUDE + LONGITUDE | 146.43 | 4.86 | 0.081 | ||
| 3 | LONGITUDE + SHORE | 153.58 | 12.01 | 0.0020 | ||
| 4 | LATITUDE + SHORE | 153.78 | 12.21 | 0.0020 | ||
| 5 | LATITUDE + LONGITUDE +SHORE | 158.16 | 16.59 | <0.00 | ||
| δ15N | 1 | SHORE + LONGITUDE | 205.10 | 0.00 | 0.99 | |
| 2 | SHORE + BATHY | 216.23 | 11.13 | 0.004 | ||
| 3 | BATHY + LONGITUDE +LATITUDE | 217.11 | 12.01 | 0.002 | ||
| 4 | SHORE + BATHY +LONGITUDE | 220.38 | 15.27 | <0.00 | ||
| 5 | SHORE + BATHY +LATITUDE | 220.88 | 15.78 | <0.00 |
“:” denotes interaction.
Abbreviations: % PUPS, percentage of pups in harvest; AO, Arctic Oscillation; AOO, Arctic Ocean Oscillation; AT, air temperature; BATHY, bathymetry (m); CONDITION, body condition; OVULATION, ovulation rate; PDO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PWI, proportional width index; SHORE, distance to shore (km); SST, sea surface temperature.