Table A1.
APC model analysis results of TB incidence in China, India, and the United States, 1992–2017.
| Variables | China | India | The United States | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coef (95%CI) | RR (95%CI) | P | Coef (95%CI) | RR (95%CI) | P | Coef (95%CI) | RR (95%CI) | P | |
| Intercept | 4.73 (4.70, 4.76) | 0 | 5.94 (5.93, 5.96) | 0 | 1.66 (1.52, 1.80) | 0 | |||
| Age | |||||||||
| 20–24 | 0.16 (0.08, 0.24) | 1 | 0.74 | −0.19 (−0.24, −0.14) | 1 | 0 | −0.76 (−1.21, −0.28) | 1 | 0 |
| 25–29 | −0.01 (−0.09, 0.06) | 0.84 (0.84, 0.84) | 0 | −0.29 (−0.34, −0.24) | 0.91 (0.91, 0.91) | 0 | −0.15 (−0.52, −0.22) | 1.84 (2.06, 1.64) | 0.42 |
| 30–34 | −0.16 (−0.24, −0.08) | 0.73 (0.72, 0.73) | 0 | −0.30 (−0.34, −0.25) | 0.90 (0.90, 0.90) | 0 | 0.07 (−0.29, 0.43) | 2.29 (2.60, 2.02) | 0.71 |
| 35–39 | −0.38 (−0.47, −0.29) | 0.58 (0.58, 0.59) | 0 | −0.34 (−0.39, −0.29) | 0.86 (0.86, 0.86) | 0 | 0.18 (−0.18, 0.55) | 2.57 (2.91, 2.27) | 0.32 |
| 40–44 | −0.42 (−0.51, −0.33) | 0.56 (0.55, 0.57) | 0 | −0.27 (−0.32, −0.22) | 0.93 (0.93, 0.92) | 0 | 0.12 (−0.27, 0.50) | 2.40 (2.66, 2.17) | 0.55 |
| 45–49 | −0.37 (−0.46, −0.28) | 0.59 (0.58, 0.59) | 0 | −0.16 (−0.21, 0.11) | 1.04 (1.04, 1.03) | 0 | 0.19 (−0.19, 0.57) | 2.59 (2.87, 2.33) | 0.33 |
| 50–54 | −0.25 (−0.33, −0.17) | 0.66 (0.66, 0.67) | 0.12 | 0.00 (−0.04, 0.04) | 1.21 (1.22, 1.21) | 0.94 | 0.16 (−0.22, 0.54) | 2.52 (2.80, 2.26) | 0.4 |
| 55–59 | −0.06 (−0.13, 0.02) | 0.80 (0.80, 0.80) | 0.02 | 0.15 (0.11, 0.19) | 1.41 (1.42, 1.40) | 0 | 0.18 (−0.19, 0.54) | 2.55 (2.88, 2.26) | 0.34 |
| 60–64 | 0.09 (0.02, 0.16) | 0.93 (0.94, 0.92) | 0 | 0.20 (0.16, 0.24) | 1.48 (1.50, 1.47) | 0 | 0.11 (−0.24, 0.46) | 2.39 (2.73, 2.10) | 0.53 |
| 65–69 | 0.30 (0.24, 0.37) | 1.15 (1.17, 1.14) | 0 | 0.29 (0.25, 0.32) | 1.62 (1.64, 1.60) | 0 | 0.06 (−0.28, 0.40) | 2.28 (2.64, 1.97) | 0.71 |
| 70–74 | 0.30 (0.24, 0.36) | 1.15 (1.17, 1.13) | 0 | 0.25 (0.22, 0.29) | 1.56 (1.58, 1.54) | 0 | 0.15 (−0.17, 0.46) | 2.48 (2.93, 2.10) | 0.37 |
| 75–79 | 0.28 (0.22, 0.34) | 1.13 (1.14, 1.11) | 0 | 0.24 (0.20, 0.27) | 1.54 (1.56, 1.52) | 0 | −0.08 (−0.42, 0.26) | 1.97 (2.27, 1.71) | 0.63 |
| period | |||||||||
| 1992 | 0.39 (0.35, 0.43) | 1 | 0 | 0.08 (0.06, 0.11) | 1 | 0 | 0.33 (0.13, 0.53) | 1 | 0 |
| 1997 | 0.28 (0.24, 0.32) | 0.90 (0.90, 0.90) | 0 | 0.06 (0.03, 0.08) | 0.97 (0.97, 0.97) | 0 | 0.45 (0.25, 0.64) | 1.13 (1.13, 1.12) | 0 |
| 2002 | 0.17 (0.13, 0.22) | 0.81 (0.80, 0.81) | 0.96 | 0.02 (0.00, 0.05) | 0.94 (0.94, 0.94) | 0.02 | 0.24 (0.03, 0.24) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.93) | 0.02 |
| 2007 | 0.00 (−0.05, 0.05) | 0.68 (0.67, 0.68) | 0 | −0.04 (−0.06, −0.01) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.89) | 0.32 | −0.12 (−0.37, 0.12) | 0.64 (0.61, 0.66) | 0.32 |
| 2012 | −0.37 (−0.43, −0.32) | 0.47 (0.46, 0.47) | 0 | −0.04 (−0.07, −0.02) | 0.88 (0.88, 0.88) | 0.02 | −0.32 (−0.58, −0.06) | 0.52 (0.49, 0.55) | 0.02 |
| 2017 | −0.47 (−0.52, −0.41) | 0.43 (0.42, 0.43) | 0.31 | 0.08 (−0.11, −0.06) | 0.85 (0.84, 0.85) | 0 | −0.57 (−0.87, −0.27) | 0.41 (0.37, 0.45) | 0 |
| cohort | |||||||||
| 1908–1912 | 0.06 (−0.06, 0.18) | 1 | 0.21 | 0.28 (0.21, 0.35) | 1 | 0 | 0.36 (−0.35, 1.06) | 1 | 0.32 |
| 1913–1917 | 0.06 (−0.03, 0.15) | 1.00 (1.03, 0.97) | 0.04 | 0.24 (0.19, 0.30) | 0.97 (0.99, 0.95) | 0 | 0.29 (−0.20, 0.77) | 0.93 (1.16, 0.75) | 0.25 |
| 1918–1922 | 0.08 (0.00, 0.16) | 1.02 (1.06, 0.98) | 0 | 0.21 (0.16, 0.25) | 0.94 (0.96, 0.91) | 0 | 0.20 (−0.20, 0.60) | 0.86 (1.16, 0.63) | 0.32 |
| 1923–1927 | 0.10 (0.03, 0.17) | 1.04 (1.10, 0.99) | 0 | 0.16 (0.12, 0.20) | 0.89 (0.92, 0.87) | 0 | 0.16 (−0.21, 0.53) | 0.82 (1.15, 0.59) | 0.39 |
| 1928–1932 | 0.13 (0.06, 0.19) | 1.07 (1.12, 1.01) | 0 | 0.10 (0.07, 0.14) | 0.84 (0.87, 0.82) | 0 | 0.11 (−0.25, 0.47) | 0.78 (1.11, 0.55) | 0.54 |
| 1933–1937 | 0.14 (0.07, 0.20) | 1.08 (1.14, 1.02) | 0 | 0.04 (0.01, 0.08) | 0.79 (0.82, 0.77) | 0.02 | 0.01 (−0.35, 0.37) | 0.71 (1.00, 0.50) | 0.95 |
| 1938–1942 | 0.14 (0.07, 0.22) | 1.08 (1.13, 1.03) | 0.03 | −0.01 (−0.05, 0.03) | 0.75 (0.77, 0.73) | 0.73 | −0.09 (−0.48, 0.29) | 0.64(0.88, 0.46) | 0.64 |
| 1943–1947 | 0.09 (0.01, 0.17) | 1.03 (1.07, 0.99) | 0.09 | −0.04 (−0.09, 0.00) | 0.74 (0.74, 0.71) | 0.05 | −0.20 (−0.60, 0.21) | 0.58 (0.78, 0.43) | 0.34 |
| 1948–1952 | 0.08 (−0.01, 0.16) | 1.01 (1.05, 0.98) | 0.23 | −0.07 (−0.12, −0.02) | 0.71 (0.72, 0.69) | 0 | −0.29 (−0.71, 0.13) | 0.52 (0.69, 0.40) | 0.18 |
| 1953–1957 | 0.06 (−0.04, 0.15) | 0.99 (1.02, 0.97) | 0.45 | −0.09 (−0.14, −0.04) | 0.69 (0.71, 0.68) | 0 | −0.37 (−0.80, 0.06) | 0.49 (0.64, 0.37) | 0.1 |
| 1958–1962 | 0.04 (−0.06, 0.13) | 0.97 (1.00, 0.95) | 0.59 | −0.09 (−0.14, −0.04) | 0.69 (0.70, 0.68) | 0 | −0.35 (−0.77, 0.07) | 0.50 (0.66, 0.37) | 0.11 |
| 1963–1967 | 0.02 (−0.06, 0.11) | 0.96 (0.99, 0.93) | 0.36 | −0.08 (−0.13, −0.03) | 0.70 (0.72, 0.69) | 0 | −0.26 (−0.66, 0.15) | 0.54 (0.73, 0.40) | 0.21 |
| 1968–1972 | −0.04 (−0.12,0.04) | 0.91 (0.94, 0.87) | 0.05 | −0.06 (−0.10, −0.01) | 0.72 (0.73, 0.70) | 0.02 | −0.14 (−0.53, 0.26) | 0.61 (0.83, 0.45) | 0.49 |
| 1973–1977 | −0.09 (−0.18, 0.00) | 0.86 (0.88, 0.83) | 0 | −0.05 (−0.10, 0.00) | 0.72 (0.73, 0.71) | 0.06 | −0.04 (−0.47, 0.38) | 0.67 (0.88, 0.51) | 0.84 |
| 1978–1982 | −0.19 (−0.30, −0.09) | 0.77 (0.78, 0.76) | 0 | −0.06 (−0.11, 0.00) | 0.72 (0.73, 0.71) | 0.06 | 0.02 (−0.47, 0.51) | 0.71 (0.88, 0.58) | 0.94 |
| 1983–1987 | −0.20 (−0.32, −0.08) | 0.77 (0.77, 0.77) | 0.02 | −0.08 (−0.14, −0.01) | 0.70 (0.71, 0.70) | 0.03 | 0.11 (−0.49, 0.70) | 0.78 (0.87, 0.70) | 0.72 |
| 1988–1992 | −0.18 (−0.33, −0.03) | 0.78 (0.76, 0.81) | 0.03 | −0.13 (−0.21, −0.05) | 0.67 (0.66, 0.67) | 0 | 0.19 (−0.59, 0.98) | 0.85 (0.79, 0.92) | 0.63 |
| 1993–1997 | −0.28 (−0.53, −0.03) | 0.71 (0.62, 0.81) | 0 | −0.29 (−0.43, −0.15) | 0.57 (0.53, 0.61) | 0 | 0.28 (−1.19, 1.75) | 0.93 (0.43, 2.00) | 0.71 |
| AIC | 7.68 | 8.78 | 4.35 | ||||||
| BIC | −175.66 | −180.23 | −189.74 | ||||||
| Deviance | 16.03 | 11.47 | 1.96 | ||||||