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. 2020 May 23;9(4):302–312. doi: 10.1016/j.jshs.2020.05.006

Fig. 3.

Fig 3

Simulated trend in childhood obesity prevalence from April 2020 to March 2021 under the control and 4 alternative scenarios. A microsimulation model was built to simulate the trajectory of a U.S. nationally representative kindergarten cohort's childhood obesity prevalence from April 2020 to March 2021 under the control scenario without coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) and under the 4 alternative scenarios with COVID-19—Scenario 1: a 2-month nationwide school closure in April and May 2020; Scenario 2: Scenario 1 followed by a 10% reduction in daily physical activity (PA) in the summer from June to August; Scenario 3: Scenario 2 followed by a 2-month school closure in September and October; and Scenario 4: Scenario 3 followed by an additional 2-month school closure in November and December. Childhood obesity is defined as body mass index (BMI) z-scores at the 95th percentile or higher in the 2000 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age- and sex-specific growth chart. The error bars denote the estimated standard errors.