Table 3.
Results from multivariable logistic regression model of factors associated with major adverse kidney events at 1 month (MAKE30) and 1 year (MAKE365).
| Multivariate model for MAKE30 | Multivariate model for MAKE365 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coef. | aOR (95%CI) | P | Coef. | aOR (95%CI) | P | |
| Intercept | −4.04 | −3.77 | ||||
| Loge uNGAL concentration | 0.38 | 1.47 (1.32–1.63) | <0.001 | 0.34 | 1.41 (1.26–1.57) | <0.001 |
| Age, per 10 year increase | — | — | — | 0.14 | 1.15 (1.06–1.26) | 0.001 |
| Male versus female | 0.27 | 1.31 (0.97–1.77) | 0.08 | — | — | — |
| ICU vs other wards | 0.63 | 1.88 (1.33–2.67) | <0.001 | 0.30 | 1.35 (0.93–1.97) | 0.113 |
| AKI stage 3 vs 2/1 | 0.86 | 2.35 (1.73–3.21) | <0.001 | 0.52 | 1.69 (1.21–2.34) | 0.002 |
| Sepsis | 0.39 | 1.47 (1.04–2.08) | 0.03 | 0.36 | 1.43 (1.03–1.98) | 0.03 |
| Ischaemic cause | 0.32 | 1.37 (0.98–1.92) | 0.06 | — | — | — |
| Malignancy | 0.61 | 1.85 (1.18–2.9) | 0.007 | 0.75 | 2.13 (1.3–3.48) | 0.003 |
| Ischemic heart disease | — | — | — | 1.90 | 6.69 (2.41–8.56) | <0.001 |
| Persistent AKI | 0.48 | 1.61 (1.06–2.43) | 0.02 | 0.82 | 2.28 (1.55–3.35) | <0.001 |
| Chronic liver disease | 0.39 | 1.48 (0.98–2.23) | 0.06 | 0.76 | 2.14 (1.38–3.34) | 0.001 |
How to calculate the probability of the patient experiencing a major adverse kidney event within 1 month (MAKE30).
For example, a female with uNGAL concentration of 2000, from ICU, with stage 2 AKI, septic, non-ischaemic cause, a malignancy, chronic liver disease and persistent AKI: MAKE30 Score = −4.04 + (loge2000*0.38) + 0.63 + 0.39 + 0.61 + 0.48 + 0.39) = 1.348.
The exponential of 1.348 is 3.849, so the probability this person will develop MAKE30 is 3.849/(1+3.849) = 0.79 (79%).