Table 1.
Scenario assumptions in 2050. GHG50 is run under various assumptions related to these 20 factors
| Factor | Very low | Low | Default | High | Very high | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurdle rate on BIOIGCC-CCS (%) | – | – | 10 | – | 44 |
| 2 | Natural gas price ($/thousand m3) | 173 | – | 308 | – | 438 |
| 3 | Hurdle rate on nuclear (%) | – | 10 | 15 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Investment cost for NGCC-CCS (M$/GW) | 1255 | 1325 | 1428 | 1782 | 2133 |
| CO2 retrofit cost for NGCC ($/KWh) | 0.027 | 0.031 | 0.041 | 0.054 | 0.072 | |
| 5 | CO2 capture rate for NGCC-CCS and CCS retrofit in NGCC (%) | 66 | 70 | 85 | 90 | 95 |
| 6 | NGCC-CCS efficiency (energy out/energy in) (%) | 40 | 43 | 45 | 49 | – |
| CCS retrofit efficiency (%) | 75 | 80 | 84 | 91 | – | |
| 7 | CCS retrofit cost for NGCC ($/KWh) | – | – | 0.041 | 0.049 | 0.066 |
| 8 | Hurdle rate for NGCC-CCS (%) | – | 5 | 10 | 25 | 45 |
| Hurdle rate for CCS retrofit in NGCC (%) | – | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | |
| 9 | Battery storage requirement for renewables (GW storage per GW of variable renewables) (%) | 0 | 7 | 14 | – | – |
| 10 | CO2 storage cost ($/tCO2) | 4.90 | 7.30 | 9.70 | 12.1 | 14.5 |
| 11 | Electricity storage investment cost (M$/GW) | 1000 | 2000 | 4623 | – | – |
| 12 | Methane leakage rate during extraction (%) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 2.30 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| No range | ||
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Max. electrification of light duty vehicles (LDVs) | Fixed 99% of LDV fleet purchases |
| Battery electric vehicles | 49% | |
| Plug-in electric vehicles | 50% | |
| 14 | Max. wind and solar | No upper bound on solar + 27,778 billion KWh upper bound on wind + 2083 billion Kwh lower bound on total wind and solar electricity generation |
| 15 | No BIOIGCC-CCS | No biomass with CCS plant option |
| 16 | No CCS gas retrofit | No CCS retrofit option for natural gas combined-cycle plants |
| 17 | No lifetime extension on existing coal | No investment option to extend 50-year lifetime of existing coal plants |
| 18 | No gasification technologies | No biomass- and coal-IGCC plant options |
| 19 | No lifetime extension on existing nuclear | No investment option to extend 40-year lifetime of existing nuclear plants |
| 20 | High nuclear output | 833 billion KWh lower bound limit on electricity from nuclear plants |
The default values associated with each factor are based on the EPAUS9r-14-v1.5 database. The default values represent the BAU assumptions. All costs are based on 2005$