Fig. 3.

The cumulative number of active infected cases as a function of time (Sweden). The red line is the prediction of the actual number of cumulative active cases (blue) using our dynamic model. The black line is an estimate of the effective reproduction number. The confidence bounds are large, as is the estimation of the effective reproduction number and the time to achieve a lower threshold of 100 cases. The current estimate is that the number of cases will be lower than this threshold around December 2020 – mid February 2021.