Fig. 1.
Epidemic curves with varying contact rates. The contact rates decrease by 1 from 10 to 6 per day (left to right), corresponding to reproduction numbers ranging from 2.5 to 1.5. As these numbers decrease, the percent of the population infected decreases from 89% to 58%. Thus, social distancing not only delays and diminishes the peak number of infections, it also reduces the total number of infections.