Tabla 1.
Estimación de los coeficientes y de las fechas del fin de la epidemia según los datos a 22/4/2020
| Comunidad autónoma | Modelos de contagiados |
Modelos de fallecidos |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| b (IC95%) | a (IC95%) | c (IC95%) | Fecha fin | b (IC95%) | a (IC95%) | c (IC95%) | Fecha fin | |
| Andalucía | -0.102 (-0.106,-0.097) | 12701.872 (12449.056,12954.688) | 25.492 (25.204,25.78) | 10/06/20 | -0.084 (-0.088,-0.079) | 1375.354 (1322.365,1428.343) | 33.743 (33.179,34.307) | 05/06/20 |
| Aragón | -0.1 (-0.106,-0.095) | 5468.242 (5322.385,5614.099) | 27.084 (26.707,27.461) | 04/06/20 | -0.084 (-0.09,-0.079) | 880.491 (833.967,927.014) | 35.187 (34.43,35.944) | 01/06/20 |
| Asturias | -0.078 (-0.083,-0.073) | 2727.282 (2628.178,2826.386) | 25.458 (24.83,26.086) | 09/06/20 | -0.061 (-0.066,-0.056) | 351.555 (319.567,383.542) | 38.859 (37.219,40.5) | 05/06/20 |
| Baleares | -0.116 (-0.124,-0.107) | 1828.794 (1779.225,1878.363) | 23.256 (22.857,23.654) | 15/05/20 | -0.075 (-0.083,-0.067) | 223.425 (203.344,243.506) | 34.923 (33.49,36.356) | 18/05/20 |
| Canarias | -0.121 (-0.126,-0.116) | 2169.584 (2139.665,2199.502) | 22.922 (22.719,23.126) | 14/05/20 | -0.123 (-0.135,-0.112) | 123.78 (119.256,128.304) | 26.745 (26.271,27.22) | 23/04/20 |
| Cantabria | -0.113 (-0.125,-0.102) | 2140.596 (2056.683,2224.509) | 24.561 (24.002,25.12) | 18/05/20 | -0.081 (-0.089,-0.074) | 219.775 (203.95,235.599) | 34.6 (33.519,35.681) | 16/05/20 |
| Castilla-La Mancha | -0.088 (-0.092,-0.085) | 20389.014 (19938.915,20839.113) | 29.434 (29.107,29.762) | 29/06/20 | -0.083 (-0.086,-0.079) | 2619.466 (2538.272,2700.66) | 31.887 (31.413,32.362) | 12/06/20 |
| Castilla y León | -0.069 (-0.073,-0.064) | 22078.697 (20977.38,23180.014) | 31.945 (31.061,32.829) | 24/07/20 | -0.107 (-0.109,-0.105) | 1715.048 (1698.215,1731.88) | 29.785 (29.657,29.914) | 24/05/20 |
| Cataluña | -0.086 (-0.09,-0.081) | 49227.704 (47679.816,50775.591) | 27.969 (27.476,28.462) | 10/07/20 | -0.129 (-0.134,-0.123) | 4313.684 (4238.415,4388.953) | 27.729 (27.507,27.95) | 22/05/20 |
| Ceuta | -0.157 (-0.183,-0.131) | 115.651 (109.642,121.66) | 28.416 (27.846,28.987) | 21/04/20 | -0.262 (-0.393,-0.131) | 4.229 (3.926,4.533) | 30.558 (29.353,31.763) | 13/04/20 |
| C. Valenciana | -0.099 (-0.105,-0.094) | 11321.285 (11039.421,11603.15) | 25.324 (24.954,25.694) | 10/06/20 | -0.095 (-0.099,-0.091) | 1295.589 (1265.824,1325.353) | 30.546 (30.225,30.867) | 27/05/20 |
| Extremadura | -0.085 (-0.095,-0.074) | 3688.372 (3434.953,3941.79) | 26.766 (25.66,27.873) | 09/06/20 | -0.107 (-0.113,-0.102) | 446.697 (434.893,458.501) | 29.8 (29.454,30.146) | 11/05/20 |
| Galicia | -0.118 (-0.123,-0.113) | 8960.746 (8820.319,9101.173) | 26.091 (25.881,26.302) | 30/05/20 | -0.102 (-0.106,-0.097) | 429.271 (418.027,440.516) | 32.36 (32.024,32.697) | 15/05/20 |
| Madrid | -0.079 (-0.085,-0.074) | 67301.118 (64827.97,69774.266) | 26.79 (26.183,27.397) | 20/07/20 | -0.098 (-0.101,-0.096) | 8196.958 (8097.911,8296.005) | 26.119 (25.941,26.297) | 09/06/20 |
| Melilla | -0.086 (-0.095,-0.077) | 125.585 (119.102,132.067) | 24.356 (23.502,25.211) | 27/04/20 | -0.23 (-0.282,-0.177) | 2.059 (1.949,2.17) | 24.6 (23.781,25.42) | 13/04/20 |
| Murcia | -0.111 (-0.119,-0.103) | 1753.878 (1707.227,1800.529) | 23.685 (23.296,24.073) | 16/05/20 | -0.132 (-0.14,-0.125) | 131.682 (128.555,134.809) | 30.778 (30.505,31.051) | 27/04/20 |
| Navarra | -0.083 (-0.087,-0.08) | 5570.162 (5450.229,5690.095) | 26.716 (26.369,27.063) | 15/06/20 | -0.054 (-0.068,-0.04) | 717.719 (485.336,950.102) | 40.721 (34.291,47.151) | 25/06/20 |
| País Vasco | -0.089 (-0.093,-0.085) | 14460.898 (14126.727,14795.07) | 25.938 (25.58,26.296) | 21/06/20 | -0.063 (-0.065,-0.061) | 1714.421 (1662.367,1766.474) | 35.81 (35.261,36.36) | 26/06/20 |
| La Rioja | -0.057 (-0.063,-0.051) | 6587.953 (5963.087,7212.819) | 32.749 (30.823,34.675) | 23/07/20 | -0.074 (-0.078,-0.071) | 409.187 (392.912,425.462) | 34.138 (33.497,34.779) | 26/05/20 |
| Total | -0.085 (-0.089,-0.082) | 235897.171 (230282.564,241511.779) | 27.223 (26.849,27.596) | 28/07/20 | -0.094 (-0.096,-0.092) | 24582.574 (24249.75,24915.399) | 29.098 (28.903,29.293) | 26/06/20 |
IC95%: intervalo de confianza del 95%.
Coeficientes a, b y c de las curvas de Gompertz (G(t) y g(t)). La fechas de fin se calcularon resolviendo la ecuación g(t) = 0,75, esto es, el tiempo t en el que se esperaba menos de un caso en la curva de casos diarios g(t).