Fig. 4.

Mean seven-day projections using a stochastic m-IDEA model at various stages of the pandemic in Canada. See text for full details on the fitting procedure. Projections were made every five days using data reported since March 11, 2020. All incidence data up to and including the vertical red line were used to fit the model. Incidence data reported since the projections are plotted to the right of the vertical red line. a) projection day (PD) 5; b) PD 10; c) PD 15; d) PD 20; e) PD 25; f) PD 30; g) PD 35; h) PD 40; i) PD 45; j) PD 50; k) PD 55. Plots for PDs 5 through 30 (a-f) were derived with a uniformly distributed serial interval ranging from one to four days, and assuming a Poisson error structure in reported data. Plots for PDs 35 through 55 reflect a serial interval ranging from five through nine days, also assuming a Poisson error structure in reported data. 90% prediction intervals and minimum and maximum predicted values are indicated in shaded red and pink, respectively.