Table 1.

Best fit parameters for each discrete serial interval (SerInt) used in the m-IDEA model for each projection day (PD). See text for details on the fitting procedure used and reported case data considered for each projection. Corresponding charts are available in Fig. 2.

	PD 5
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.56	1.69	1.71	1.68	1.64	1.60	1.57	1.55	1.54
D	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	PD 10
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.77	1.88	1.99	2.13	2.21	2.22	2.20	2.16	2.11
D	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	PD 15
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.60	1.93	2.01	2.23	2.40	2.54	2.63	2.70	2.73
D	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	PD 20
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.63	2.16	2.43	2.46	2.35	2.51	2.65	2.77	2.87
D	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	PD 25
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.60	2.20	2.67	3.01	3.23	3.34	3.38	3.36	3.29
D	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
	PD 30
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.59	2.25	2.86	3.39	3.84	4.20	4.49	4.71	4.87
D	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06
	PD 35
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.56	2.23	2.91	3.57	4.19	4.77	5.30	5.79	6.23
D	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.09	0.09
	PD 40
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.48	2.08	2.71	3.35	3.99	4.61	5.21	5.79	6.33
D	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.09	0.09
	PD 45
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.40	1.87	2.38	2.89	3.39	3.88	4.34	4.78	5.19
D	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.07
	PD 50
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.37	1.81	2.29	2.79	3.29	3.79	4.27	4.75	5.20
D	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.07
	PD 55
SerInt (days)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
R0	1.35	1.78	2.27	2.78	3.32	3.88	4.44	5.01	5.58
D	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08