Table 1.
Monte Carlo Simulations of Effects of Volumetric or Sugar Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages
| Volumetric Tax Compared to No Tax | Sugar Tax Compared to Volumetric Tax | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th pctile | Mean | 90th pctile | 10th pctile | Mean | 90th pctile | |
| United States | ||||||
| SSB consumption decrease (ounces/person-day) | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SSB sugar consumption decrease (grams/person-day) | 3.7 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| SSB calorie consumption decrease (calories/person-day) | 15.9 | 33.4 | 43.9 | 4.8 | 10.0 | 13.1 |
| Steady-state obesity prevalence decrease (% change) | 0.8 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Type 2 diabetes incidence decrease (% change) | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Economic efficiency gain ($/person-year) | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Global | ||||||
| Steady-state weight loss (millions of pounds) | 147.0 | 324.0 | 463.0 | 44.0 | 97.0 | 139.0 |
Note. The first six rows reflect calculations for adults in the United States, while the final row is a global calculation for all adults in cities and countries that currently have volumetric SSB taxes.