FIGURE 4.

The scope for partial easing of lockdown while containing the spread of proportion of time countries could have in pre-lockdown state without the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2. The reclaimable fraction, one minus R₀ under lockdown divided by the difference between the R₀'s before and under lockdown, is an estimate of the proportion of the behaviour, that lockdown has prevented, that can be resumed without increasing R₀ past 1, and restarting epidemic spread (table 1). Each row is the mean and 95% CI for a country. Black data points represent mortality data and red data points represent confirmed cases. Thin lines and hollow points indicate countries where plots of the modelled trajectories led to subjective doubts of the model fits. Lines that cut the left hand edge (0) indicate countries for whom lockdown may not yet have halted the epidemic. The vertical dotted line at 0.2 is a guide to highlight that there is little evidence for it being sustainable to resume >20% of discontinued activity without the epidemic resuming its spread.