Table 3.

The parameter values and initial condition of simulations for Toronto.

Parameter	Mean value	Std	$95\text{\%}$ CI	References
$\beta$ (Phase 1)	$7.95\times 10^{-3}$	$1.12\times 10^{-3}$	$[5.76\times 10^{-3},0.01]$	MCMC
$\beta$ (Phase 2)	$1.38\times 10^{-4}$	$1.79\times 10^{-4}$	$[0,4.90\times 10^{-4}]$	MCMC
$\xi$ (Phase 1)	0.1421	0.0734	[0, 0.2858]	MCMC
$\xi$ (Phase 2)	0.1140	0.0709	[0, 0.2530]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{N}_k\left(0\right)$	5928000	–	–	[30]
${\sum }_k{S}_k\left(0\right)$	5927990	–	–	Calculated
${\sum }_k{E}_k\left(0\right)$	4.12	4.83	[0, 13.58]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{A}_k\left(0\right)$	2.43	2.22	[0, 6.78]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{I}_k\left(0\right)$	3.22	2.89	[0, 8.88]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{H}_k\left(0\right)$	1	–	–	[26]
${\sum }_k{R}_k\left(0\right)$	0	–	–	Estimated
${\sum }_k{D}_k\left(0\right)$	0	–	–	Estimated

Phase 1 is from Jan 26 to Mar 18, and Phase 2 is from Mar 18 to Mar 29.