Table 6.

The parameter values and initial condition of simulations for Italy.

Parameter	Mean value	Standard derivation	$95\text{\%}$ CI	References
$\beta$ (Phase 1)	0.0179	$1.19\times 10^{-3}$	[0.0156, 0.0203]]	MCMC
$\beta$ (Phase 2)	$4.45\times 10^{-4}$	$2.30\times 10^{-4}$	$[0,8.95\times 10^{-4}]$	MCMC
$\xi$ (Phase 1)	0.0996	0.0458	$[9.87\times 10^{-3},0.1894]$	MCMC
$\xi$ (Phase 2)	0.1312	0.0250	[0.0823, 0.1801]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{N}_k\left(0\right)$	59430000	–	–	[31]
${\sum }_k{S}_k\left(0\right)$	59429892	–	–	Calculated
${\sum }_k{E}_k\left(0\right)$	69.01	56.92	[0, 180.58]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{A}_k\left(0\right)$	22.60	18.24	[0, 58.35]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{I}_k\left(0\right)$	32.11	24.23	[0, 79.59]	MCMC
${\sum }_k{H}_k\left(0\right)$	2	–	–	[26]
${\sum }_k{R}_k\left(0\right)$	0	–	–	Estimated
${\sum }_k{D}_k\left(0\right)$	0	–	–	Estimated

Phase 1 is between Jan 31 and Mar 8, and Phase 2 is between Mar 8 and Mar 26.