Table 7.

The peak number of new cases, peak time, and final size after containment strategies are implemented in Italy.

Scenarios	Peak size (95% CI)	Peak time (95% CI)	Final size (95% CI)
$\beta$	5492 (5277, 5708)	Mar 26 (24, 27)	$2.59\times 10^5(2.10\times 10^5,3.08\times 10^5)$
$0.8\beta$	4340 (4235, 4564)	Mar 25 (24, 26)	$2.03\times 10^5(1.75\times 10^5,2.31\times 10^5)$
$0.6\beta$	3323 (3197, 3450)	Mar 25 (24, 26)	$1.52\times 10^5(1.37\times 10^5,1.66\times 10^5)$
$q=0$	5492 (5277, 5708)	Mar 26 (24, 27)	$2.59\times 10^5(2.10\times 10^5,3.08\times 10^5)$
$q=1∕8$	3413 (3279, 3547)	Mar 20 (19, 21)	$1.22\times 10^5(1.14\times 10^5,1.30\times 10^5)$
$q=1∕4$	2609 (2434, 2783)	Mar 18 (17, 19)	$8.51\times 10^4(7.91\times 10^4,9.11\times 10^4)$