Table 2. ROC curve comparison between the different prognostic scores.

Test	Area	p	95% CI	Cut-off	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)
In-Hospital mortality
APACHE II	0.836	<0.001	0.75–0.921	22	82.6	68
APACHE III	0.818	<0.001	0.736–0.899	81	78.5	64
APACHE IV	0.792	<0.001	0.705–0.878	74	76	64
SAPS II	0.818	<0.001	0.73–0.905	48	78.5	64
SAPS III	0.809	<0.001	0.712–0.905	71	75.2	80
SOFA	0.890	<0.001	0.835–0.943	6	85.1	76
MPM II Day 0 mortality	0.803	<0.001	0.719–0.886	35%	79.3	76
MPM III Day 0 mortality	0.794	<0.001	0.701–0.885	35%	80.2	76
90-day mortality
APACHE II	0.879	<0.001	0.798–0.959	21	86.4	76.2
APACHE III	0.876	<0.001	0.805–0.945	81	79.2	76.2
APACHE IV	0.856	<0.001	0.779–0.933	74	76.8	76.2
SAPS II	0.854	<0.001	0.764–0.943	50	74.4	81
SAPS III	0.888	<0.001	0.82–0.955	70	77.6	90.5
SOFA	0.905	<0.001	0.85–0.959	6	84.8	85.7
MPM II Day 0 mortality	0.854	<0.001	0.78–0.926	34%	81.6	85.7
MPM III Day 0 mortality	0.848	<0.001	0.774–0.921	34%	80.8	85.7

Cut-off values were derived based on the ROC graphs (Figs 2 and 3). CI: Confidence interval, APACHE: Acute Physiology Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation, SAPS: Simplified Acute Physiology Score, SOFA: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, MPM: Mortality Prediction Model.