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. 2020 Jun 2;11:2741. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16545-6

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — The relationship between the size of an epidemic and a the amount of prior activity of all other antigenic variants and subtypes, and b the delay in epidemic onset. The size of each epidemic, relative to the earliest epidemic of that season, was log-transformed: the horizontal line at 0 denotes that the size of an epidemic is equal to that of the earliest epidemic of that season and city. In panel (a), prior activity by other subtypes within the same season was measured relative to the city-specific mean epidemic size. In panel b, delay in epidemic onset was measured relative to the onset timing of the earliest epidemic of that season. r- and P values are from Pearson’s correlation tests (n = 82).