Table 11.
Carbon emissions and leakage rates: pooled national market and KLEM production structure (%)
| CA | RGGI | CA-RGGI | History | State Alliance | Carbon Center | Climate Mayors | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade | No Trade | Trade | No Trade | Trade | No Trade | Trade | No Trade | Trade | No Trade | Trade | No Trade | Trade | No Trade | ||
| State | Alaska | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | −21.4 | −20.0 |
| Emissions | Alabama | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 14.3 |
| % Change | Arkansas | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 6.7 | −30.3 | −20.0 | −28.3 | −20.0 |
| Arizona | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | −23.1 | −20.0 | |
| California | −20.0 | −20.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | −16.7 | −20.0 | −17.1 | −20.0 | −12.5 | −20.0 | −11.5 | −20.0 | −11.0 | −20.0 | |
| Colorado | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | −30.8 | −20.0 | −28.5 | −20.0 | −27.0 | −20.0 | |
| Connecticut | 0.8 | 0.8 | −14.4 | −20.0 | −16.8 | −20.0 | −17.2 | −20.0 | −12.6 | −20.0 | −11.6 | −20.0 | −11.1 | −20.0 | |
| D.C. | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | −9.2 | −20.0 | −9.2 | −20.0 | |
| Delaware | 1.3 | 1.3 | −31.5 | −20.0 | −38.5 | −20.0 | −40.1 | −20.0 | −26.8 | −20.0 | −24.7 | −20.0 | −23.7 | −20.0 | |
| Florida | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | −22.4 | −20.0 | −20.8 | −20.0 | |
| Georgia | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | |
| Hawaii | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | −31.4 | −20.0 | −26.3 | −20.0 | −23.5 | −20.0 | |
| Iowa | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 8.8 | |
| Idaho | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | |
| Illinois | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | −20.8 | −20.0 | −19.7 | −20.0 | −19.0 | −20.0 | |
| Indiana | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 10.4 | |
| Kansas | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | |
| Kentucky | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 12.7 | |
| Louisiana | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | |
| Massachusetts | 1.2 | 1.2 | −19.5 | −20.0 | −23.1 | −20.0 | −23.8 | −20.0 | −16.1 | −20.0 | −14.5 | −20.0 | −13.6 | −20.0 | |
| Maryland | 0.9 | 0.9 | −21.5 | −20.0 | −25.5 | −20.0 | −26.3 | −20.0 | −18.3 | −20.0 | −16.8 | −20.0 | −15.8 | −20.0 | |
| Maine | 2.1 | 2.1 | −48.0 | −20.0 | −52.3 | −20.0 | −52.9 | −20.0 | −44.2 | −20.0 | −41.0 | −20.0 | −40.2 | −20.0 | |
| Michigan | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | −27.3 | −20.0 | −25.5 | −20.0 | −24.5 | −20.0 | |
| Minnesota | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −21.4 | −20.0 | −20.1 | −20.0 | −19.3 | −20.0 | |
| Missouri | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 10.0 | |
| Mississippi | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 15.1 | 15.8 | |
| Montana | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 10.1 | |
| North Carolina | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | −24.2 | −20.0 | −22.4 | −20.0 | −21.1 | −20.0 | |
| North Dakota | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | |
| Nebraska | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 7.3 | |
| New Hampshire | 2.0 | 2.0 | −42.3 | −20.0 | −47.1 | −20.0 | −47.8 | −20.0 | −36.5 | −20.0 | −32.7 | −20.0 | −31.3 | −20.0 | |
| New Jersey | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | −12.3 | −20.0 | −11.6 | −20.0 | −11.2 | −20.0 | |
| New Mexico | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | −55.1 | −20.0 | −54.6 | −20.0 | −54.6 | −20.0 | |
| Nevada | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | −17.8 | −20.0 | −16.8 | −20.0 | |
| New York | 0.7 | 0.7 | −14.0 | −20.0 | −16.2 | −20.0 | −16.6 | −20.0 | −12.2 | −20.0 | −11.3 | −20.0 | −10.8 | −20.0 | |
| Ohio | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 9.4 | |
| Oklahoma | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 8.4 | |
| Oregon | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | −19.6 | −20.0 | −14.5 | −20.0 | −13.4 | −20.0 | −12.8 | −20.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 8.4 | |
| Rhode Island | 1.0 | 1.0 | −23.3 | −20.0 | −28.2 | −20.0 | −29.2 | −20.0 | −19.6 | −20.0 | −17.9 | −20.0 | −16.8 | −20.0 | |
| South Carolina | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 | −40.6 | −20.0 | −39.1 | −20.0 | |
| South Dakota | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 8.3 | |
| Tennessee | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | −25.7 | −20.0 | |
| Texas | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | −21.6 | −20.0 | |
| Utah | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 10.7 | |
| Virginia | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | −19.8 | −20.0 | −18.2 | −20.0 | −17.1 | −20.0 | |
| Vermont | 1.9 | 1.9 | −44.7 | −20.0 | −50.5 | −20.0 | −51.3 | −20.0 | −38.5 | −20.0 | −34.3 | −20.0 | −33.2 | −20.0 | |
| Washington | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | −15.1 | −20.0 | −11.3 | −20.0 | −10.6 | −20.0 | −10.3 | −20.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | −28.1 | −20.0 | −26.5 | −20.0 | −25.5 | −20.0 | |
| West Virginia | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 15.2 | 14.9 | |
| Wyoming | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 13.4 | |
| National | |||||||||||||||
| Emissions | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 | −3.9 | −3.9 | −5.1 | −5.1 | −8.8 | −8.8 | |
| (% Change) | |||||||||||||||
| Leakage (%) | 55.9 | 55.9 | 57.2 | 61.1 | 55.2 | 56.3 | 54.6 | 55.4 | 44.8 | 45.0 | 40.6 | 40.8 | 29.3 | 29.5 | |
Source: Authors calculations.