Table 3.
Multinomial logistic regression of migration/attrition on climate variables and controls with alternative time trends (relative risk ratios and significance tests, n = 64,829 person-periods).
| Specification/Outcome | Temporary migration | Permanent migration | Individual attrition | Household attrition | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear time trend | ||||||||
| Temp anomaly | 1.06 | 1.26 | *** | 1.09 | 1.01 | |||
| Temp X year | 1.00 | 0.98 | ** | 1.00 | 1.01 | |||
| Precip anomaly | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 1.01 | ||||
| Precip X year | 1.01 | + | 1.01 | * | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Year | 1.07 | *** | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.01 | |||
| Age 20–24 | 1.24 | *** | 3.11 | *** | 3.01 | *** | 1.26 | *** |
| Age 25–29 | 1.08 | 3.63 | *** | 3.75 | *** | 1.14 | ||
| Age 30–34 | 0.84 | * | 2.78 | *** | 3.18 | *** | 1.20 | + |
| Age 35–39 | 0.72 | *** | 2.80 | *** | 2.70 | *** | 1.07 | |
| Age 40–44 | 0.60 | *** | 2.56 | *** | 2.63 | *** | 0.87 | |
| Age 45–49 | 0.43 | *** | 2.63 | *** | 2.77 | *** | 0.79 | * |
| Female | 0.61 | *** | 2.06 | *** | 1.03 | 1.03 | ||
| Child of head | 1.97 | *** | 17.09 | *** | 7.50 | *** | 1.02 | |
| Other relation to head | 1.90 | *** | 12.07 | *** | 8.06 | *** | 1.17 | |
| Ever married | 0.61 | *** | 0.40 | *** | 0.77 | *** | 0.87 | + |
| Primary edu. | 1.69 | *** | 1.47 | *** | 1.25 | * | 1.24 | ** |
| Lower middle edu. | 1.87 | *** | 1.62 | *** | 1.21 | + | 1.42 | *** |
| Upper middle edu. | 1.97 | *** | 1.97 | *** | 1.20 | + | 1.69 | *** |
| Technical school | 2.48 | *** | 2.28 | *** | 1.19 | 1.47 | ** | |
| University edu. | 2.44 | *** | 3.15 | *** | 1.31 | 2.19 | *** | |
| Household size | 1.00 | 1.09 | *** | 1.21 | *** | 0.76 | *** | |
| Migrant network | 1.45 | *** | 1.27 | *** | 1.17 | *** | 1.41 | *** |
| Consumer assets | 0.92 | *** | 0.99 | 0.95 | 1.08 | ** | ||
| Business assets | 0.98 | 0.94 | ** | 1.00 | 0.94 | * | ||
| Urbanicity index | 0.99 | *** | 1.00 | 0.99 | + | 1.00 | ||
| Joint: Climate X year | 3.5 | 12.6 | ** | 0.3 | 0.6 | |||
| Quadratic time trend (controls not shown) | ||||||||
| Temp anomaly | 0.89 | 1.25 | * | 0.96 | 0.92 | |||
| Temp X year | 1.04 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.02 | ||||
| Temp X year2 | 1.00 | + | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
| Precip anomaly | 0.89 | + | 1.04 | 0.95 | 0.95 | |||
| Precip X year | 1.03 | * | 0.98 | 1.04 | + | 1.03 | ||
| Precip X year2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| Year | 1.11 | *** | 1.09 | *** | 1.00 | 1.09 | ** | |
| Year2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | *** | 1.00 | 1.00 | * | ||
| Joint: Climate X time | 7.2 | 20.3 | *** | 5.4 | 4.1 | |||
| Joint: Temp X time | 2.8 | 17.0 | *** | 2.2 | 0.6 | |||
| Joint: Precip X time | 5.5 | + | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | |||
| Stepwise time trend (controls not shown) | ||||||||
| Temp anomaly | 0.96 | 0.83 | ** | 1.16 | * | 0.97 | ||
| Temp X pre-2000 | 0.98 | 1.43 | ** | 0.83 | 1.10 | |||
| Precip anomaly | 1.08 | * | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.93 | |||
| Precip X pre-2000 | 0.87 | * | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.05 | |||
| Pre-2000 | 0.31 | *** | 0.51 | *** | 0.74 | + | 0.48 | *** |
| Year is 1989 | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Year is 1991 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 0.91 | 1.58 | * | |||
| Year is 1993 | 0.92 | 1.61 | *** | 0.96 | 1.09 | |||
| Year is 1997 | 1.68 | *** | 1.13 | 1.03 | 1.53 | * | ||
| Year is 2000 | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Year is 2004 | 0.90 | 0.55 | *** | 0.40 | *** | 0.53 | *** | |
| Year is 2006 | 0.82 | + | 0.66 | *** | 0.65 | ** | 0.96 | |
| Year is 2009 | 1.17 | 0.45 | *** | 0.65 | * | 0.55 | * | |
| Joint: Climate X pre-2000 | 5.4 | + | 9.8 | ** | 1.9 | 0.4 | ||
Notes: County fixed effects, missing indicators and constant are included but not shown. Reference categories are age 15–19, head/spouse, and no education.
+
p<0.10,
*
p<0.05,
**
p<0.01,
***
p<0.001