Table 2.
Projected impact of intensive control measures and lockdown in the UK
| Intensive interventions | Lockdown with 1000-bed trigger | Lockdown with 2000-bed trigger | Lockdown with 5000-bed trigger | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases, millions* | 11 (1·9–20) | 4·1 (0·85–12) | 6·3 (1·2–14) | 9·5 (1·5–16) |
| Total deaths* | 120 000 (27 000–260 000) | 50 000 (9300–160 000) | 76 000 (15 000–190 000) | 120 000 (22 000–220 000) |
| Cases in peak week | 720 000 (170 000–3 000 000) | 120 000 (46 000–700 000) | 180 000 (86 000–980 000) | 330 000 (160 000–1 400 000) |
| Deaths in peak week | 8300 (2300–37 000) | 1400 (510–9000) | 2100 (930–13 000) | 3400 (1800–17 000) |
| Peak ICU beds required | 29 000 (8300–130 000) | 4900 (1800–32 000) | 7500 (3500–44 000) | 12 000 (6700–62 000) |
| Peak non-ICU beds required | 55 000 (15 000–250 000) | 9100 (3600–60 000) | 14 000 (6800–83 000) | 23 000 (13 000–120 000) |
| Time to peak cases, weeks | 19 (10–69) | 60 (8–92) | 60 (8–72) | 35 (8–69) |
| Time spent in lockdown (Jan 29, 2020—Dec 31, 2021) | .. | 69% (13–88) | 56% (9·2–76) | 33% (2·8–52) |
| Total infected, millions* | 27 (5·3–46) | 11 (2·1–29) | 17 (3·0–33) | 25 (4·4–38) |
Data are median (95% prediction interval) and are given to two significant figures. Time to peak cases is measured from Jan 29, 2020. Totals are calculated up to Dec 31, 2021. ICU=intensive care unit.
*
Simulations were run to Dec 31, 2021, so reported total cases, deaths, and infections under the lockdown projections do not capture any cases, deaths, or infections occurring after this point.