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. 2020 Jan;245:112708. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112708

Table 1.

Price effect (% change) on SOFT drink after the taxation implemented in Chile.

Carbonates
Juices
Concentrates
Bottled water
Energy and sport drinks
Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2
Implementation effect 4.55* 5.60* 2.12* 0.52 −0.01 −0.17 2.89* 2.55* 2.16* 0.29
[2.77; 6.33] [3.18; 8.03] [0.55; 3.69] [-1.19; 2.24] [-2.93; 2.91] [-4.28; 3.95] [1.25; 4.53] [0.74; 4.35] [0.08; 4.23] [-2.78; 3.35]
Announcement effect 1.02 −1.98* −0.16 −0.68 −1.72
[-0.62; 2.67] [-3.63; −0.33] [-3.09; 2.78] [-2.25; 0.90] [-3.79; 0.35]
Time trend (monthly) −0.04 −0.06 0.11 0.11 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 −0.54* −0.43*
[-0.29; 0.20] [-0.30; 0.20] [-0.08; 0.31] [-0.08; 0.31] [-0.53; 0.56] [-0.53; 0.57] [-0.17; 0.26] [-0.18; 0.25] [-0.95; −0.13] [-0.84; −0.01]
Post-tax trend (monthly) 0.13 0.14 −0.20* −0.25* 0.94* 0.94* −0.13* −0.14* −0.04 −0.14
[-0.20; 0.46] [-0.18; 0.47] [-0.35; −0.06] [-0.35; −0.15] [0.07; 1.81] [0.06; 1.81] [-0.25; −0.02] [-0.25; −0.03] [-0.42; 0.34] [-0.49; 0.23]
Selected ARIMA model (1,1,0) (1,1,0) (1,0,1) (1,0,0) (0,1,1) (0,1,1) (1,0,0) (1,0,0) (1,0,0) (1,0,0)

Model 1: ARIMAX model without announcement effect. Model 2: ARIMAX model with announcement effect. Point estimates in percent change. 95% Confidence Intervals in parenthesis. *p < 0.05. Expected change in prices per category for pass-through estimates were: carbonates 4.0%; concentrates −2.8%; juices 3.8%; bottled waters −1.2%; sports and energy drinks 18%.