Table 1.
Price effect (% change) on SOFT drink after the taxation implemented in Chile.
| Carbonates |
Juices |
Concentrates |
Bottled water |
Energy and sport drinks |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | |
| Implementation effect | 4.55* | 5.60* | 2.12* | 0.52 | −0.01 | −0.17 | 2.89* | 2.55* | 2.16* | 0.29 |
| [2.77; 6.33] | [3.18; 8.03] | [0.55; 3.69] | [-1.19; 2.24] | [-2.93; 2.91] | [-4.28; 3.95] | [1.25; 4.53] | [0.74; 4.35] | [0.08; 4.23] | [-2.78; 3.35] | |
| Announcement effect | 1.02 | −1.98* | −0.16 | −0.68 | −1.72 | |||||
| [-0.62; 2.67] | [-3.63; −0.33] | [-3.09; 2.78] | [-2.25; 0.90] | [-3.79; 0.35] | ||||||
| Time trend (monthly) | −0.04 | −0.06 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | −0.54* | −0.43* |
| [-0.29; 0.20] | [-0.30; 0.20] | [-0.08; 0.31] | [-0.08; 0.31] | [-0.53; 0.56] | [-0.53; 0.57] | [-0.17; 0.26] | [-0.18; 0.25] | [-0.95; −0.13] | [-0.84; −0.01] | |
| Post-tax trend (monthly) | 0.13 | 0.14 | −0.20* | −0.25* | 0.94* | 0.94* | −0.13* | −0.14* | −0.04 | −0.14 |
| [-0.20; 0.46] | [-0.18; 0.47] | [-0.35; −0.06] | [-0.35; −0.15] | [0.07; 1.81] | [0.06; 1.81] | [-0.25; −0.02] | [-0.25; −0.03] | [-0.42; 0.34] | [-0.49; 0.23] | |
| Selected ARIMA model | (1,1,0) | (1,1,0) | (1,0,1) | (1,0,0) | (0,1,1) | (0,1,1) | (1,0,0) | (1,0,0) | (1,0,0) | (1,0,0) |
Model 1: ARIMAX model without announcement effect. Model 2: ARIMAX model with announcement effect. Point estimates in percent change. 95% Confidence Intervals in parenthesis. *p < 0.05. ♦ Expected change in prices per category for pass-through estimates were: carbonates 4.0%; concentrates −2.8%; juices 3.8%; bottled waters −1.2%; sports and energy drinks 18%.