TABLE 2.
Posterior median and 95% CI of three independent Bayesian latent class models for the prevalence of M. bovis, sensitivity and specificity of the RIMM, triplex real-time PCR and selective-indicative agar used to diagnose M. bovis from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples
| Parametera | Model 1b |
Model 2c |
Model 3d |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior densities | Posterior densities (95% CI) | Prior densities | Posterior densities (95% CI) | Prior densities | Posterior densities (95% CI) | |
| Sepcr | Beta (1) | 93.5 (77.2–99.7) | Beta (99.7, 6.19) | 94.8 (89.8–97.8) | Beta (99.7, 6.19) | 94.8 (89.9–97.9) |
| Sppcr | Beta (1) | 89.2 (78.1–97.8) | Beta (1) | 89.1 (78.1–97.7) | Beta (1) | 88.9 (78.0–97.4) |
| Serimm | Beta (1) | 86.0 (68.3–97.5) | Beta (1) | 86.3 (68.8–97.5) | Beta (1) | 86.6 (69.4–97.6) |
| Sprimm | Beta (1) | 86.8 (76.3–94.9) | Beta (1) | 86.5 (76.2–93.9) | Beta (1) | 86.4 (76.1–93.8) |
| Sesia | Beta (1) | 69.5 (50.8–86.7) | Beta (1) | 70.2 (51.8–86.9) | Beta (1) | 70.5 (52.1–87.1) |
| Spsia | Beta (1) | 94.1 (86.0–98.8) | Beta (1) | 94.0 (86.0–98.5) | Beta (1) | 93.9 (85.9–98.4) |
| Prev | Beta (1) | 33.7 (23.2–45.9) | Beta (1) | 33.3 (23.1–44.6) | Beta (6.28, 13.32) | 32.6 (23.5–42.6) |
a
pcr, triplex real-time PCR; Prev, prevalence of M. bovis; rimm, rapid identification of M. bovis with MALDI-TOF MS method; Se, sensitivity; sia, selective-indicative agar; Sp, specificity.
b
Model 1, no informative priors.
c
Model 2, informative priors on prevalence and Sepcr (mode, 95%; 5th percentile, 90%) and Sppcr (mode, 74%; 5th percentile, 95%) (30).
d
Model 3, informative prior on Sepcr, Sppcr, and prevalence of M. bovis in BALf (mode. 30%; 5th percentile; 50%) (33).