Table 1.

Estimates for Post-Test Probability of Acute COVID-19 Infection for Simulated Patient Scenarios

Clinical Scenarios	Pre-test probability (%)	PCR assay sensitivity (%)	Post-test probability of acute COVID-19 infection
			Positive test (%)	Negative test (%)
Patient 1: high pre-test probability	70	70	100	41.2
		90	100	18.9
	90	70	100	73.0
		90	100	47.4
Patient 2: low pre-test probability	5	70	97.4	1.6
		90	97.9	0.5
	10	70	98.7	3.2
		90	99.0	1.1