Table 1.

Parameter estimates for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China.

Parameter	Definitions	Estimated values		Source
		Hubei (Std)	China (Std)
c0	Contact rate at the initial time	14.781	14.781	Tang et al. (2020b)
cb	Minimum contact rate under the current control strategies	5.00 (0.0039)	8.00 (0.066)	Estimated
r1	Exponential decreasing rate of contact rate	0.20 (0.0067)	0.15 (0.0352)	Estimated
β	Probability of transmission per contact	0.2068 (0.0048)	0.1911 (0.0175)	Estimated
q0	Quarantined rate of exposed individuals at the initial time	0.0051 (0.0052)	1.00 × 10−4 (0.0037)	Estimated
qm	Maximum quarantined rate of exposed individuals under the current control strategies	0.6297 (0.0134)	0.98 (0.0087)	Estimated
r2	Exponential increasing rate of quarantined rate of exposed individuals	0.10 (0.00062)	0.1531 (0.004)	Estimated
m	Transition rate of susceptible individuals to the suspected class	1.00 × 10−6(1.21 × 10−8)	1.0002 × 10−7(1.58 × 10−8)	Estimated
b	Detection rate of the suspected class	0.09 (0.0000066)	0.07 (0.0078)	Estimated
f	Confirmation ratio: Transition rate of exposed individuals in the suspected class to the quarantined infected class	0.80 (0.0032)	0.50 (0.0541)	Estimated
σ	Transition rate of exposed individuals to the infected class	1/7	1/7	Tang et al. (2020b)
λ	Rate at which the quarantined uninfected contacts were released into the wider community	1/14	1/14	Tang et al. (2020b)
δI0	Initial transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class	0.1326	0.1326	Tang et al. (2020b)
δIf	Fastest diagnosis rate	2.5 (0.0009)	2.5 (0.006)	Estimated
r3	Exponential decreasing rate of diagnosis rate	0.20 (0.000139)	0.20 (0.093)	Estimated
γI	Recovery rate of infected individuals	0.33	0.33	Tang et al. (2020b)
γH	Recovery rate of quarantined infected individuals	0.20 (0.0045)	0.15 (0.0132)	Estimated
α	Disease-induced death rate	0.013 (0.00036)	0.008 (0.00017)	Estimated

Initial values	Definitions	Estimated values		Source
		Hubei (Std)	China (Std)
S(0)	Initial susceptible population	9.00 × 106 (3.52 × 107)	2.00 × 107 (1.23 × 107)	Estimated
E(0)	Initial exposed population	4.00 × 103 (390)	9.00 × 103 (2.11 × 103)	Estimated
I(0)	Initial infected population	935 (60)	1.2405 × 103 (642)	Estimated
B(0)	Initial suspected population	800 (13)	1072	Data
Sq(0)	Initial quarantined susceptible population	2132	7347	Data
H(0)	Initial quarantined infected population	494	771	Data
R(0)	Initial recovered population	34	34	Data