Table 2. Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool for Women and Men Proportional Hazards Coefficients and Hazard Ratios for the Full, Simple, and Parsimonious Versions, by Ontario Cohort.
| Variable | Cohort | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development | Entire Ontario | |||
| ln[HR] (95% CI) | HR | ln[HR] (95% CI) | HR | |
| Full version for women | ||||
| Weibull parameters | ||||
| Scale, σ | 0.8924 | NA | 0.8869 | NA |
| Shape, γ | 1.1206 | NA | 1.1275 | NA |
| Intercept | −4.311 (−4.71 to −3.91) | 0.0134 | −4.345 (−4.68 to −4.00) | 0.0130 |
| Alcohol consumption | ||||
| Light | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Heavy | 0.41 (0.12 to 0.70) | 1.51 | 0.24 (−0.01 to 0.49) | 1.27 |
| Moderate | 0.09 (−0.07 to 0.24) | 1.09 | 0.10 (−0.03 to 0.23) | 1.11 |
| None | 0.34 (0.22 to 0.47) | 1.41 | 0.32 (0.22 to 0.41) | 1.37 |
| Cigarette smoking | ||||
| Never | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Always occasional | 0.36 (−0.09 to 0.81) | 1.44 | 0.27 (−0.11 to 0.65) | 1.31 |
| Former daily, now occasional | 0.61 (0.34 to 0.89) | 1.84 | 0.61 (0.38 to 0.84) | 1.84 |
| Daily | 1.05 (0.93 to 1.18) | 2.87 | 1.05 (0.95 to 1.15) | 2.86 |
| Former occasional | −0.16 (−0.30 to −0.02) | 0.85 | −0.16 (−0.27 to −0.04) | 0.86 |
| Former daily | 0.20 (0.09 to 0.32) | 1.23 | 0.20 (0.10 to 0.30) | 1.22 |
| Fruit and vegetable consumption, times/d | ||||
| <3 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 3-6 | −0.06 (−0.17 to 0.05) | 0.94 | −0.06 (−0.15 to 0.03) | 0.94 |
| >6 | −0.12 (−0.25 to 0.00) | 0.88 | −0.12 (−0.22 to −0.01) | 0.89 |
| Age, spline term | ||||
| 1 | 0.13 (0.11 to 0.16) | 1.14 | 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15) | 1.14 |
| 2 | −0.26 (−0.34 to −0.18) | 0.77 | −0.25 (−0.32 to −0.18) | 0.78 |
| 3 | 0.51 (0.34 to 0.69) | 1.67 | 0.51 (0.36 to 0.66) | 1.66 |
| Visible minority | 0.37 (0.23 to 0.51) | 1.44 | 0.34 (0.22 to 0.46) | 1.41 |
| Postsecondary education | −0.06 (−0.16 to 0.03) | 0.94 | −0.10 (−0.19 to −0.02) | 0.90 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Domestic partner | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Single, never married | 0.05 (−0.11 to 0.21) | 1.06 | 0.07 (−0.06 to 0.21) | 1.08 |
| Widowed, separated, or divorced | 0.09 (−0.02 to 0.20) | 1.09 | 0.08 (−0.01 to 0.18) | 1.09 |
| Asthma | 0.36 (0.22 to 0.50) | 1.43 | 0.37 (0.25 to 0.50) | 1.45 |
| BMI | ||||
| <18.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 18.5 to <25.0 | −0.33 (−0.76 to 0.10) | 0.72 | −0.18 (−0.56 to 0.19) | 0.83 |
| 25.0 to <30.0 | 0.32 (0.20 to 0.45) | 1.38 | 0.37 (0.27 to 0.47) | 1.45 |
| 30.0 to <35.0 | 0.61 (0.47 to 0.75) | 1.84 | 0.61 (0.50 to 0.73) | 1.85 |
| 35.0 to <40.0 | 1.01 (0.80 to 1.22) | 2.74 | 1.03 (0.86 to 1.20) | 2.81 |
| ≥40.0 | 1.24 (1.01 to 1.47) | 3.46 | 1.16 (0.97 to 1.36) | 3.20 |
| Unknown | 0.47 (0.32 to 0.62) | 1.59 | 0.43 (0.31 to 0.56) | 1.54 |
| High blood pressure | 0.35 (0.24 to 0.46) | 1.42 | 0.33 (0.23 to 0.42) | 1.39 |
| Self-rated health | ||||
| Good | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Poor or fair | 0.23 (0.09 to 0.37) | 1.26 | 0.19 (0.08 to 0.31) | 1.21 |
| Very good or excellent | −0.14 (−0.24 to −0.03) | 0.87 | −0.19 (−0.27 to −0.10) | 0.83 |
| Life stress | ||||
| Not at all stressful | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| A bit stressful | −0.02 (−0.17 to 0.12) | 0.98 | 0.00 (−0.13 to 0.13) | 1.00 |
| Not very stressful | −0.13 (−0.29 to 0.02) | 0.88 | −0.10 (−0.23 to 0.02) | 0.90 |
| Quite a bit or extremely stressful | −0.03 (−0.20 to 0.13) | 0.97 | 0.02 (−0.13 to 0.16) | 1.02 |
| Simple version for women | ||||
| Weibull parameters | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Scale, σ | 0.9000 | NA | 0.8940 | NA |
| Shape, γ | 1.1111 | NA | 1.1186 | NA |
| Intercept | −4.083 (−4.42 to −3.75) | 0.0169 | −4.210 (−4.49 to −3.93) | 0.0148 |
| Cigarette smoking | ||||
| Never | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Always occasional | 0.29 (−0.17 to 0.74) | 1.33 | 0.18 (−0.20 to 0.56) | 1.20 |
| Former daily, now occasional | 0.51 (0.23 to 0.78) | 1.66 | 0.50 (0.27 to 0.73) | 1.65 |
| Daily | 0.99 (0.87 to 1.12) | 0.73 | 1.00 (0.90 to 1.10) | 0.74 |
| Former occasional | −0.31 (−0.45 to −0.17) | 2.70 | −0.30 (−0.42 to −0.18) | 2.72 |
| Former daily | 0.04 (−0.07 to 0.16) | 1.04 | 0.05 (−0.04 to 0.14) | 1.05 |
| Age, spline term | ||||
| 1 | 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15) | 1.14 | 0.12 (0.10 to 0.14) | 1.13 |
| 2 | −0.25 (−0.33 to −0.17) | 0.78 | −0.24 (−0.30 to −0.17) | 0.79 |
| 3 | 0.52 (0.35 to 0.69) | 1.68 | 0.49 (0.35 to 0.64) | 1.64 |
| BMI | ||||
| <18.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 18.5 to <25.0 | −0.21 (−0.63 to 0.21) | 2.12 | −0.07 (−0.44 to 0.30) | 2.14 |
| 25.0 to <30.0 | 0.39 (0.26 to 0.51) | 3.42 | 0.43 (0.33 to 0.52) | 3.55 |
| 30.0 to <35.0 | 0.75 (0.62 to 0.89) | 4.32 | 0.76 (0.65 to 0.87) | 4.08 |
| 35.0 to <40.0 | 1.23 (1.02 to 1.43) | 1.47 | 1.27 (1.10 to 1.43) | 1.53 |
| ≥40.0 | 1.46 (1.25 to 1.68) | 0.81 | 1.41 (1.23 to 1.59) | 0.93 |
| Unknown | 0.54 (0.39 to 0.69) | 1.71 | 0.52 (0.39 to 0.64) | 1.67 |
| Parsimonious version for women | ||||
| Weibull parameters | ||||
| Scale, σ | 0.8922 | NA | 0.8864 | NA |
| Shape, γ | 1.1208 | NA | 1.1282 | NA |
| Intercept | −4.384 (−4.75 to −4.01) | 0.0125 | −4.424 (−4.73 to −4.11) | 0.0120 |
| Alcohol consumption | ||||
| Light | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Heavy | 0.42 (0.13 to 0.71) | 1.52 | 0.26 (0.01 to 0.51) | 1.29 |
| Moderate | 0.08 (−0.07 to 0.24) | 1.09 | 0.10 (−0.03 to 0.23) | 1.10 |
| None | 0.35 (0.23 to 0.47) | 1.42 | 0.33 (0.23 to 0.43) | 1.39 |
| Cigarette smoking | ||||
| Never | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Always occasional | 0.38 (−0.07 to 0.82) | 1.46 | 0.29 (−0.09 to 0.66) | 1.33 |
| Former daily, now occasional | 0.62 (0.34 to 0.89) | 1.85 | 0.61 (0.38 to 0.84) | 1.84 |
| Daily | 1.07 (0.95 to 1.2) | 2.93 | 1.08 (0.97 to 1.18) | 2.93 |
| Former occasional | −0.16 (−0.3 to −0.02) | 0.85 | −0.16 (−0.28 to −0.04) | 0.85 |
| Former daily | 0.20 (0.08 to 0.32) | 1.23 | 0.20 (0.10 to 0.30) | 1.22 |
| Fruit and vegetable consumption, times/d | ||||
| <3 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 3-6 | −0.07 (−0.17 to 0.04) | 0.94 | −0.07 (−0.17 to 0.02) | 0.93 |
| >6 | −0.14 (−0.26 to −0.01) | 0.87 | −0.14 (−0.24 to −0.03) | 0.87 |
| Age, spline term | ||||
| 1 | 0.13 (0.11 to 0.16) | 1.14 | 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15) | 1.14 |
| 2 | −0.26 (−0.34 to −0.18) | 0.77 | −0.25 (−0.31 to −0.18) | 0.78 |
| 3 | 0.52 (0.35 to 0.69) | 1.68 | 0.51 (0.36 to 0.66) | 1.66 |
| Visible minority | 0.37 (0.23 to 0.51) | 1.44 | 0.34 (0.22 to 0.46) | 1.41 |
| Asthma | 0.36 (0.22 to 0.5) | 1.43 | 0.38 (0.26 to 0.50) | 1.46 |
| BMI | ||||
| <18.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 18.5 to <25.0 | −0.32 (−0.74 to 0.11) | 0.73 | −0.18 (−0.55 to 0.19) | 0.83 |
| 25.0 to <30.0 | 0.33 (0.2 to 0.45) | 1.39 | 0.37 (0.27 to 0.47) | 1.45 |
| 30.0 to <35.0 | 0.61 (0.47 to 0.75) | 1.85 | 0.62 (0.50 to 0.73) | 1.86 |
| 35.0 to <40.0 | 1.02 (0.8 to 1.23) | 2.76 | 1.04 (0.87 to 1.21) | 2.83 |
| ≥40.0 | 1.24 (1.02 to 1.47) | 3.47 | 1.17 (0.98 to 1.36) | 3.22 |
| Unknown | 0.47 (0.32 to 0.62) | 1.60 | 0.44 (0.31 to 0.57) | 1.55 |
| High blood pressure | 0.35 (0.24 to 0.46) | 1.42 | 0.33 (0.24 to 0.42) | 1.39 |
| Self-rated health | ||||
| Good | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Poor or fair | 0.24 (0.11 to 0.38) | 1.27 | 0.21 (0.10 to 0.33) | 1.24 |
| Very good or excellent | −0.14 (−0.25 to −0.04) | 0.87 | −0.19 (−0.28 to −0.10) | 0.82 |
| Full version for men | ||||
| Weibull parameters | ||||
| Scale, σ | 0.8422 | NA | 0.8496 | NA |
| Shape, γ | 1.1874 | NA | 1.1770 | NA |
| Intercept | −2.405 (−3.35 to −1.46) | 0.0903 | −3.183 (−3.92 to −2.45) | 0.0415 |
| Alcohol consumption | ||||
| Light | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Heavy | −0.21 (−0.39 to −0.03) | 0.81 | −0.12 (−0.26 to 0.02) | 0.89 |
| Moderate | −0.05 (−0.19 to 0.09) | 0.95 | −0.01 (−0.13 to 0.11) | 0.99 |
| None | 0.19 (0.06 to 0.33) | 1.21 | 0.18 (0.06 to 0.30) | 1.20 |
| Cigarette smoking | ||||
| Never | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Always occasional | 0.14 (−0.35 to 0.63) | 1.15 | 0.05 (−0.33 to 0.43) | 1.05 |
| Former daily, now occasional | 0.33 (0.06 to 0.61) | 1.40 | 0.35 (0.12 to 0.58) | 1.42 |
| Daily | 0.86 (0.73 to 1.00) | 2.37 | 0.83 (0.72 to 0.94) | 2.30 |
| Former occasional | 0.04 (−0.13 to 0.22) | 1.04 | 0.01 (−0.13 to 0.16) | 1.01 |
| Former daily | 0.20 (0.08 to 0.33) | 1.23 | 0.16 (0.05 to 0.27) | 1.18 |
| Fruit and vegetable consumption, times/d | ||||
| <3 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 3-6 | −0.13 (−0.23 to −0.02) | 0.88 | −0.08 (−0.16 to 0.01) | 0.93 |
| >6 | −0.22 (−0.39 to −0.06) | 0.80 | −0.16 (−0.30 to −0.03) | 0.85 |
| Age, spline term | ||||
| 1 | 0.24 (0.18 to 0.29) | 1.27 | 0.19 (0.15 to 0.23) | 1.21 |
| 2 | −0.63 (−0.90 to −0.37) | 0.53 | −0.42 (−0.63 to −0.21) | 0.66 |
| 3 | 1.57 (0.74 to 2.40) | 4.81 | 0.93 (0.26 to 1.60) | 2.54 |
| 4 | −1.04 (−1.84 to −0.24) | 0.35 | −0.48 (−1.15 to 0.18) | 0.62 |
| Visible minority | 0.31 (0.16 to 0.45) | 1.36 | 0.27 (0.15 to 0.39) | 1.31 |
| Household income | ||||
| Not low | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Low | 0.12 (−0.06 to 0.29) | 1.12 | 0.11 (−0.04 to 0.27) | 1.12 |
| Unknown | 0.08 (−0.13 to 0.30) | 1.09 | 0.13 (−0.04 to 0.31) | 1.14 |
| Asthma | 0.33 (0.14 to 0.51) | 1.39 | 0.27 (0.11 to 0.44) | 1.32 |
| BMI | ||||
| <18.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 18.5 to <25.0 | 0.53 (−0.04 to 1.10) | 1.69 | 0.42 (−0.07 to 0.92) | 1.53 |
| 25.0 to <30.0 | 0.04 (−0.09 to 0.18) | 1.04 | 0.14 (0.03 to 0.25) | 1.15 |
| 30.0 to <35.0 | 0.51 (0.36 to 0.66) | 1.66 | 0.57 (0.44 to 0.69) | 1.77 |
| 35.0 to <40.0 | 0.87 (0.67 to 1.07) | 2.38 | 0.98 (0.81 to 1.16) | 2.67 |
| ≥40.0 | 1.16 (0.85 to 1.46) | 3.18 | 1.19 (0.94 to 1.44) | 3.28 |
| Unknown | 0.36 (0.14 to 0.59) | 1.44 | 0.36 (0.17 to 0.55) | 1.43 |
| High blood pressure | 0.39 (0.27 to 0.52) | 1.48 | 0.36 (0.26 to 0.46) | 1.43 |
| Self-rated health | ||||
| Good | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Poor or fair | 0.12 (−0.03 to 0.27) | 1.12 | 0.11 (−0.01 to 0.24) | 1.12 |
| Very good or excellent | −0.33 (−0.43 to −0.22) | 0.72 | −0.29 (−0.38 to −0.20) | 0.75 |
| Life stress | ||||
| Not at all stressful | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| A bit stressful | −0.01 (−0.17 to 0.14) | 0.99 | −0.03 (−0.16 to 0.10) | 0.97 |
| Not very stressful | −0.13 (−0.29 to 0.03) | 0.88 | −0.08 (−0.21 to 0.05) | 0.92 |
| Quite a bit or extremely stressful | −0.11 (−0.28 to 0.06) | 0.89 | −0.13 (−0.27 to 0.01) | 0.88 |
| Simple version for men | ||||
| Weibull parameters | ||||
| Scale, σ | 0.8522 | NA | 0.8571 | NA |
| Shape, γ | 1.1735 | NA | 1.1667 | NA |
| Intercept | −2.629 (−3.52 to −1.74) | 0.0721 | −3.343 (−4.03 to −2.65) | 0.0353 |
| Cigarette smoking | ||||
| Never | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Always occasional | 0.10 (−0.41 to 0.61) | 1.11 | 0.03 (−0.37 to 0.42) | 1.03 |
| Former daily, now occasional | 0.27 (0.01 to 0.54) | 1.31 | 0.34 (0.12 to 0.56) | 1.40 |
| Daily | 0.87 (0.74 to 1.00) | 2.38 | 0.84 (0.73 to 0.95) | 2.33 |
| Former occasional | −0.03 (−0.19 to 0.14) | 0.97 | −0.04 (−0.18 to 0.10) | 0.96 |
| Former daily | 0.14 (0.01 to 0.26) | 1.15 | 0.12 (0.01 to 0.22) | 1.12 |
| Age, spline term | ||||
| 1 | 0.23 (0.18 to 0.29) | 1.26 | 0.18 (0.14 to 0.23) | 1.20 |
| 2 | −0.59 (−0.86 to −0.32) | 0.56 | −0.39 (−0.60 to −0.17) | 0.68 |
| 3 | 1.42 (0.59 to 2.25) | 4.13 | 0.83 (0.16 to 1.51) | 2.30 |
| 4 | −0.89 (−1.70 to −0.08) | 0.41 | −0.39 (−1.06 to 0.28) | 0.68 |
| BMI | ||||
| <18.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 18.5 to <25.0 | 0.66 (0.09 to 1.23) | 1.94 | 0.53 (0.04 to 1.02) | 1.70 |
| 25.0 to <30.0 | 0.55 (0.40 to 0.70) | 1.03 | 0.12 (0.48 to 0.72) | 1.13 |
| 30.0 to <35.0 | 1.00 (0.81 to 1.20) | 1.73 | 0.60 (0.93 to 1.27) | 1.82 |
| 35.0 to <40.0 | 1.42 (1.14 to 1.70) | 2.73 | 1.10 (1.19 to 1.65) | 3.01 |
| ≥40.0 | 0.03 (−0.11 to 0.16) | 4.14 | 1.42 (0.01 to 0.23) | 4.13 |
| Unknown | 0.34 (0.10 to 0.57) | 1.40 | 0.32 (0.13 to 0.51) | 1.38 |
| Parsimonious version for men | ||||
| Weibull parameters | ||||
| Scale, σ | 0.8433 | NA | 0.8504 | NA |
| Shape, γ | 1.1858 | NA | 1.1759 | NA |
| Intercept | −2.485 (−3.39 to −1.58) | 0.0833 | −3.279 (−3.99 to −2.57) | 0.0377 |
| Alcohol consumption | ||||
| Light | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Heavy | −0.21 (−0.39 to −0.03) | 0.81 | −0.12 (−0.26 to 0.03) | 0.89 |
| Moderate | −0.05 (−0.19 to 0.09) | 0.95 | −0.01 (−0.13 to 0.11) | 0.99 |
| None | 0.20 (0.07 to 0.34) | 1.22 | 0.19 (0.07 to 0.30) | 1.21 |
| Cigarette smoking | ||||
| Never | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Always occasional | 0.15 (−0.34 to 0.63) | 1.16 | 0.06 (−0.32 to 0.45) | 1.06 |
| Former daily, now occasional | 0.34 (0.07 to 0.61) | 1.40 | 0.36 (0.13 to 0.59) | 1.43 |
| Daily | 0.87 (0.73 to 1.00) | 2.38 | 0.84 (0.73 to 0.95) | 2.31 |
| Former occasional | 0.04 (−0.13 to 0.21) | 1.04 | 0.01 (−0.13 to 0.15) | 1.01 |
| Former daily | 0.20 (0.08 to 0.33) | 1.23 | 0.16 (0.06 to 0.27) | 1.18 |
| Fruit and vegetable consumption, times/d | ||||
| <3 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 3-6 | −0.13 (−0.24 to −0.02) | 0.88 | −0.08 (−0.16 to 0.01) | 0.92 |
| >6 | −0.23 (−0.39 to −0.06) | 0.80 | −0.17 (−0.30 to −0.03) | 0.85 |
| Age, spline term | ||||
| 1 | 0.23 (0.18 to 0.29) | 1.26 | 0.19 (0.15 to 0.23) | 1.21 |
| 2 | −0.62 (−0.89 to −0.36) | 0.54 | −0.41 (−0.62 to −0.20) | 0.67 |
| 3 | 1.54 (0.71 to 2.37) | 4.66 | 0.91 (0.24 to 1.58) | 2.47 |
| 4 | −1.01 (−1.81 to −0.21) | 0.36 | −0.46 (−1.13 to 0.20) | 0.63 |
| Visible minority | 0.32 (0.18 to 0.46) | 1.38 | 0.29 (0.17 to 0.41) | 1.33 |
| Asthma | 0.32 (0.14 to 0.51) | 1.38 | 0.27 (0.11 to 0.43) | 1.31 |
| BMI | ||||
| <18.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 18.5 to <25.0 | 0.53 (−0.04 to 1.10) | 1.70 | 0.43 (−0.07 to 0.93) | 1.54 |
| 25.0 to <30.0 | 0.04 (−0.09 to 0.17) | 1.04 | 0.14 (0.03 to 0.25) | 1.15 |
| 30.0 to <35.0 | 0.50 (0.35 to 0.65) | 1.65 | 0.57 (0.44 to 0.69) | 1.76 |
| 35.0 to <40.0 | 0.87 (0.67 to 1.07) | 2.39 | 0.99 (0.81 to 1.16) | 2.68 |
| ≥40.0 | 1.15 (0.85 to 1.45) | 3.16 | 1.19 (0.95 to 1.44) | 3.29 |
| Unknown | 0.36 (0.13 to 0.58) | 1.43 | 0.36 (0.17 to 0.54) | 1.43 |
| High blood pressure | 0.39 (0.27 to 0.51) | 1.48 | 0.36 (0.26 to 0.45) | 1.43 |
| Self-rated health | ||||
| Good | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Poor or fair | 0.12 (−0.02 to 0.26) | 1.13 | 0.12 (−0.01 to 0.24) | 1.12 |
| Very good or excellent | −0.33 (−0.43 to −0.22) | 0.72 | −0.29 (−0.38 to −0.20) | 0.75 |
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared); HR, hazard ratio; ln, natural log; NA, not applicable.