Skip to main content
[Preprint]. 2020 May 14:2020.05.08.20095505. [Version 2] doi: 10.1101/2020.05.08.20095505

Figure 4. The endemic potential of SARS-CoV-2 depends on immunity.

Figure 4.

(A–D). Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the presence of social distancing measures through September 1, 2030. The following social distancing parameters were assumed: 50% from June 1 to October 31, 2020; 75% from November 1, 2020 to March 1, 2021; 50% after March 1, 2021. Periods of social distancing signified as in (A) top: pink, increased social distancing; green, relaxed social distancing. (A–B). Simulation varying the % of individuals who develop immunity and the average duration of immunity. A. Active confirmed infections. B. Cumulative deaths. C. Heatmap displaying the effect of immunity parameters on cumulative deaths through September 1, 2025. D. Heatmap displaying the effect of immunity parameters on endemic potential. Endemic potential defined as the presence annual recurrence (average total annual infections > 20,000) from September 1, 2023–2025. See also, Figure S9.