Figure. Projected daily COVID-19 hospitalizations in the Austin-Round Rock MSA from February 16 to December 31, 2020 assuming strict social distancing measures are relaxed on May 1, 2020.

Upper left inset: These projections are based on a stochastic age- and risk-structured SEIR compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission fitted to comprehensive daily hospitalization data (black points) for the metropolitan area. The two curves are median projections based on the estimated transmission reduction of 95% [70%−100%] (purple) following the March 24, 2020 Stay Home-Work Safe order and a hypothetical scenario in which transmission was not reduced (gray). Main plot: Model fitting suggests that the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Austin was seeded by a local case on February 16, 2020; the first detected case was reported on March 13, 2020, schools were closed on March 15, and the shelter-in-place order was issued on March 24 and then amended to require cloth face coverings in public on April 13, 2020. The three projections assume that the order is relaxed on May 1st and schools open on August 18th. Following the May 1, we consider scenarios in which transmission rebounds to baseline (red), transmission is reduced by 75% through social distancing and aggressive testing, including in schools once the school year begins (blue), or transmission is reduced by 95% in high-risk populations through cocooning efforts and 75% in low-risk populations (green). Lines and shading indicate the median and 95% confidence interval across 200 stochastic simulations. The estimated total daily hospital capacity in the Austin-Round Rock MSA for COVID-19 patients is 80% of the 4,299 total beds (3,440), as indicated by gray shading along the bottom. Upper right inset: The time between the May 1st relaxation and COVID-19 hospital bed requirements exceeding either 1,000 or local capacity for each scenario, as indicated by corresponding colors.