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[Preprint]. 2020 Aug 1:2020.05.04.20090092. [Version 5] doi: 10.1101/2020.05.04.20090092

Fig; 1. Illustrative model fit comparisons for SEIR-W and standard SEIR to case counts in early windows of the outbreak.

Fig; 1.

The model fits are comparable across four countries with the largest early epidemics. These were chosen based having the highest cumulative number of infected cases after 30 days, following the first day when case counts were greater than or equal to 10. The four countries are (a,b) Spain, (c,d) Italy, (e,f) Iran and (g,h) Switzerland. These constitute a subset of 17 countries that had the highest number of cumulative COVID-19 cases (of the 181 total countries affected) as of March 30, 2020. Data come from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, and from ourworldindata.org (40, 47). See supplementary information for more details.